Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Atmospheric CO 2 Mauna Loa HI.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Atmospheric CO 2 Mauna Loa HI

U.S National Climate Assessment of Oceans and Marine Resources Scott Doney (WHOI) Contributing Lead Author Andrew Rosenberg (UCS) Contributing Lead Author Michael Alexander (NOAA) Francisco Chavez (MBARI) Catherine Drew Harvell (Cornell) Gretchen Hofmann (UCSB) Michael Orbach (Duke) Mary Ruckelshaus (Stanford) what-we-do/assessment Release date of draft for public comment mid-Jan. 2013

Technical Input to NCA Ocean Chapter NOAA Organized Technical Input Lead Authors Roger Griffis (NOAA) & Jennifer Howard (NOAA) we-do/assessment/nca- activities/695

Other Available Technical Inputs do/assessment/nca-activities/695

U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) -Area 1.7 times land area of continental U.S. -Encompass 11 different large marine ecosystems (LMEs) Griffis & Howard, Technical Input (2012)

Talk Outline -Climate Background warming sea-level rise Arctic sea-ice retreat rainfall & river discharge weather & events -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

Global Warming Trends IPCC 2007 Global Mean Temp. Anomalies Natural Forcing Only Natural & Human Forcing

Sea Surface Warming M. Alexander, NOAA

Ocean Warming & Sea Level Rise ~80% of excess heat in climate system is in the ocean Palmer et al. OceanObs’09 (2010) Ocean Heat Content Anomaly

Shrinking Arctic Sea-Ice National Snow & Ice Data Center

Projected Regional Climate Trends

Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming range & phenology shifts winners & losers mismatch hypothesis exacerbate other stressors uncertainties in projections -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

Satellite Ocean Color Response to Warming Behrenfeld et al., Nature (2006) Siegel et al., RSE (submitted) +Chl -SST N. temperate Stratified S. temperate tropics/subtropics (nutrient limited) temperate/polar (light & nutrient limited)

Steinacher et al. Biogeosciences st Century Trends in Biological Production

Northeast Shelf Warming ( ) Sea Surface Temperature Chlorophyll sys/advisory/current/advisory.h tml

Shifting Fish Distributions Nye et al. MEPS 2010 Atlantic croaker – Hare et al Ranges shifting poleward and deeper -Abundance changes that vary fishery by fishery MABGOM MAB GOM

Regional Fisheries Impacts Griffis & Howard, Technical Input (2012)

Lagged Social- Ecological Responses to Climate Pinsky & Fogarty Climatic Change 2012 Landings Survey Red HakeSummer Flounder Lobster Yellowtail Flounder

Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) LeQuere et al. Nature Geosciences 2009; Global Carbon Project ±0.7 Pg C y ±0.5 Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 47% 4.1±0.1 Pg C y -1 Land 27 % 2.4 Pg C y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3±0.4 Pg C y -1

2− [CO 3 ][CO 2 ]  100−150%  50% pH μmol kg −1 Year pH CO 2(aq) CO 3 2−  30% acidity  16% [CO 3 ] − Wolf-Gladrow et al. (1999) Ocean Acidification CO 2 + H 2 O H 2 CO 3 H + + CO 3 2- HCO 3 - H + + HCO 3 - CO 2 + CO 3 + H 2 O 2- 2HCO 3 - −− < > −−

Acidification along the U.S. East Coast Depth (m) Distance From Shore (km) Wang et al. L&O in press Aragonite Saturation State

Marine Life Susceptible to Ocean Acidification -Reduced shell formation -Habitat loss -Less available prey

Negative Impacts of CO 2 on Mollusks Anne Cohen & Dan McCorkle WHOI (2012) Ambient CO 2 (Vineyard Sound) High CO 2 (estuaries, future) Eastern Oyster Larvae 10 microns

Low CO 2 High CO 2 Riebesell et al. Nature (2000) Shell-forming Plankton

Potential Food Web Impacts Barrie Kovish Vicki Fabry Pacific Salmon Coccolithophores Pteropods V. Fabry Copepods

Collapse of Pacific NW Oyster Hatcheries

Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel -Reduce emissions of CO 2 -Reduce local land-based contributions to ocean acidification -Adapt to & remediate impacts of ocean acidification -Monitor and investigate causes & effects of ocean acidification ceanacidification.html

Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

overfishing agriculture fossil fuels pollution deforestation coastal urbanization

Other Human Stressors on Oceans & Coasts Doney et al. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2012