Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Some Economic and Financial Egyptian Indicators

Monthly indicators CPI and PPI reflect the global economic and financial crises impacts specially PPI which show a negative sign as a result of crude oil price deterioration. On the other hand CPI reflects the government efforts to lower inflation rate from the highest level 23.6% in Aug to 13.5% Feb. 2009

Monthly indicators (cont.)  Growth rate of liquidity reflects that conservative actions taken by Central Bank of Egypt helped to contain the effect of the first wave of the global crises. From Oct. 2008,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around 15% and declined to 9.5% in Jan  Change in the Egyptian Exchange index (CASE 30) reflect the recognized effect of global crises as the index shows lowest level in Feb due to the decline of foreign investment in Egypt as investors tried to support their financial position in their home countries.

Monthly Indicators Price Indices Inflation Rate For Both CPI & PPI Source : CAPMAS

Reverse Trend of Inflation of PPI Monthly Indicators Source : CAPMAS

Growth Rate of M0 & M1 & M2 Monthly Indicators Source : CBE

Change of the Egyptian Exchange Index (CASE 30) Monthly IndicatorsSource : Egyptian Exchange

Quarterly indicators  Quarterly indicators reflect the impact of global crises on some component of balance of payments as follows : -Trade balance fell to its record deficit in 2 nd quarter of 2008/2009 of 9% compared with pervious one. -Exports proceeds declined about 33% in2 nd quarter compared to 1 st quarter of 2008/2009

Quarterly indicators (cont.) petroleum exports dropped sharply 54.5% from 1 st to 2 nd quarter of 2008/2009 -Net portfolio investment in Egypt declined to the lowest level in second quarter 2008/2009 compared with 4 th quarter 2007/2008 (from to US$ mn) due to decrease of the foreign investments. Overall balance reversed from 459 US $ mn to US$ mn

Balance of Payments Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Balance of Payments (contd.) Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Balance of Payments (contd.) Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Balance of Payments (contd.) Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Annual indicators Annual growth rate of GDP is expected to decline from around 7.0% ( average of the last tree years )to about 4.8% in 2008/2009 The growth rate of some key sectors showed a decrease during 2008/2009. restaurants &hotel sector declined sharply to 0.6% in 2008/2009 compared with 15.6 in 2007/2008

Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Indicators Source : MOP

Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Indicators Source : MOP