Forecasting Land Use Change at European and at Urban Level: SASI and PROPOLIS EEA Expert Meeting on Land Use Accounting Copenhagen, 16 March 2005 Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research Dortmund, Germany Klaus Spiekermann

The SASI Model

SASI Model

Daily accessibility: people accessible within 5 hours by roadrail

Daily accessibility: absolute change rail TEN/TINA

B1 Priority Projects

B2 all TEN-T Projects

The PROPOLIS Modelling System

PROPOLIS analytical framework

MEPLANBilbao Helsinki Naples Vicenza TRANUSBrussels Inverness IRPUDDortmund Land-use transport models

Mikrosimulation

Scenario “Compact City“

Scenario “Polycentric Development“

Scenario ‘Urban Growth Boundary’

PROPOLIS analytical framework

Bilbao

Brussels

Dortmund

Helsinki

Inverness

Naples

Vicenza

PROPOLIS analytical framework

- Raster Module - Economic Indicator Module - Justice Indicator Module - Other Sustainability Indicator Module - Background Variables Module Sustainability indicator tools

Raster Module: Structure

Spatial Disaggregation: Methodology (1) Allocation of zonal data to raster cells

Spatial Disaggregation: Methodology (2) Spatial disaggregation of network data

Land Use in the Dortmund Region

Spatial Disaggregation of Population

Spatial Disaggregation of Population - 3d

Population in Raster Cells and Transport Network

Spatial Disaggregation of Network Data

Emission (NO 2 )

Exposure to Air Pollution

Exposure to Traffic Noise

Open Space

Quality of Open Space I

Quality of Open Space II

Fragmentation of Open Space

Accessibility to Open Space

Conclusions

Conclusions: Forecast Models and Land Use Accounts I European Models (like SASI): Purpose: Investigate future pressure on environment in Europe European-wide forecast of transport, population, GDP, employment etc. Impacts of policy scenarios on regions –development pressure from “urban functions“ –localisation of such demand (-> land use accounting) Impacts of policy scenarios for transport corridors –environmental damage from transport (noise, air quality, fragmentation) –land use accounts with additional layer (environmental quality) -> “Screening“ of policy options“

Conclusions: Forecast Models and Land Use Accounts II Urban Models (like PROPOLIS Modelling System): Purpose: Detailled test cases for future pressure on environment in urban areas Forecast of zonal development of population, employment etc Forecast of transport load on links. Linking with Corine Land Cover and land use accounts –localisation of development –future accounts of land cover changes: –environmental damage from transport (noise, air quality, fragmentation) –land use accounts with additional layer (environmental quality) -> Evaluation of policy options and environmental impacts in different urban settings“