Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine (former Ministry of Transport and Communications) State Enterprise «State Road Transport Research Institute» (SE SRTRI) The first intermediate report of Ukrainian experience with the THOR-AirPAS system I. Implementation plan II. Progress report Copenhagen, Denmark, September 2014

I. The draft plan of the THOR-AirPAS system (emission and pollution mathematical simulation, forecast and air quality control) implementation in Ukraine As it is agreed with the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine, we are seeing the next initial steps of development here: 1. As the first step we are trying at present to finish the model with 1x1 km resolution for our capital (Kiev) with real and very detailed national data set precise input, including detailed road transport emission representation (taking in to account different structure of Ukrainian traffic on different roads here etc.). 2. The second step is to tune the model (as the first approach) in accordance with real emission measurements here. 3. The third step is to make all the initial data set with 100x100 meters resolution and to make model with 100x100 meters resolution for Kiev with again tuning in accordance with the real emission measurements picture. Plus we are going to produce several OSPM examples for the main (the most polluted) streets, etc. In such a way we are going for impressive presentation of this technology features and usefulness for the public and the government. So, these first 3 steps we have considered as the THOR-AirPAS system initial power and impressive presentation in Ukraine.

As the next (but not the last) steps we are considering: 4. The national legislation improvement for such technologies demands growth and to make our cities more ecologically clean finally. 5. The THOR-AirPAS system implementation for other cities in Ukraine as well as full country scale investigations/reporting etc. As was agreed with the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine, our institute (the State Enterprise “State Road Transport Research Institute”) is responsible in Ukraine for the THOR-AirPAS system implementation, operation, as well as technological and scientific support etc.

II. The current progress report of the THOR- AirPAS system familiarization process in Ukraine. Input and output data structure and format evaluation, used by THOR-AirPAS system was the first stage of evaluation. The next stage is gone and related how to convert of all the existing national data set to convenient format to processing by the THOR-AirPAS system. As the base it is used prepared by the Danish Aarhus University team example (first draft approach image) of Ukrainian input data set processing using THOR-AirPAS system as well as QGIS features. Here below is presented pictures of concentrations of some pollutants derived (calculated) from the first draft approach for the Kiev city.

The first modification was to add in addition to the first major 4 point sources additional 64 minor point sources (but significant from the point of total fuel consumption and emission, as we can see below). It is used first approach estimation of fuel consumption and technology based emission data factors for this additional point sources based on the last EMEP data and methodology. Below is presented pictures of concentrations of some pollutants derived (calculated) from the first draft approach for the Kiev city as well as using 64 additional point sources representation (but it is for short period of time yet in comparison with previous calculations).

The next step was to make more realistic representation of road transport emission spatial distribution. Instead of first draft approach image it was developed (reconstructed) data set about road vehicles fleet detailed structure and activity in the Kiev city. Reconstructed fleet data was processed by the COPERT-IV software to produce total fuel consumption and emissions. It was developed two different data set in relation vehicles fleet detailed structure and activity. One is for so called "internal" road transport. And second is for so called "transit" road transport with very different structure, activity and even fuel quality data (the last is far not equal in the capital and outside). It was taking in to the account other features, including daily "far-home"-work trips etc.

Internal road transport fleet data was divided on two parts: - major (high traffic) flows; - and the rest (minor or local roads). Transit road transport fleet data was divided on two parts, based on the first approach assumptions: - internal semi-circle by-pass highway; - outer semi-circle by-pass highway. Then, using QGIS features it was developed input data set for this model representation file, used by the THOR-AirPAS system. Then it was developed again shape file using the THOR-AirPAS system to see what is influence of such a road traffic model adjustments. Below is presented pictures with comparison of concentrations of some pollutants (NOX & CO as an example) derived (calculated) from the draft approach using totally 68 defined point sources representation as well as using more sophisticated road transport emission model representation.

First approach road transport representation for NOx Here is more detailed road transport representation for NOx

First approach road transport representation for CO Here is more detailed road transport representation for CO

More detailed road transport representation for CO (3 days total)

An comparison of calculated using the THOR-AirPAS system concentrations of some pollutants with actual measured data (stationary measuring stations) is still in progress

Representative OSPM simulation is not yet produced (only some exercise have been done based on preinstalled Danish road fleet data set as an example) due to the need of additional time to do complicated reprocessing of existed format of Ukrainian road transport fleet data to the format, used by the OSPM software. Furthermore there is a need for further improvement of this data since it was used default EEA methodology (COPERT-IV) different vehicles specific emission factors. But there is a need first of all to develop some more reliable national specific emission factors due to high level of uncertainty of vehicles specific emission factors and the national very specific road transport conditions (including declared ecology EURO level and actual ecology level misfit, ersatz fuels effect, etc.).

As an example below is presented draft COPERT-IV based calculations of total (country level) emission by the road transport in Ukraine for It is presented two "extreme" scenarios. Both are outermost and not realistic in accordance to used assumptions. But the truth very likely lie between them. Pollutant Emission in Ukraine for 2010 (t) Scenario 1 (the worst estimation of average fleet conditions) Scenario 2 (idealized estimation of average fleet conditions) PM (exhaust) PM PM NO x NO NO VOC NMVOC CO CH N2ON2O NH

Comparing the results of the draft calculation of pollutant emissions from road transport of Ukraine in 2010 (two "extreme" scenarios), made in COPERT IV, and the data, calculated according to current (outdated) Ukrainian methodology

Preliminary conclusions for the first steps results: Above mentioned results is only for the technology familiarization purposes on this stage. There is a need for further input data set improvement as well as a need to develop more sophisticated representation of emission sources model (based on the THOR-AirPAS system features) and tuning this data using actual measurements and existing knowledge. There is a potentially great opportunity for road fleet emission factors complicated verification (more accurate definition related to national circumstances) based on real measurements of air pollution and the THOR- AirPAS system features. So, we are on the beginning of a great way to be successful. P.S.: As a drive for this process here can be partially used considered in Ukraine for near future step- by-step implementation of the Göteborg Protocol (1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, as amended on 4 May 2012) with its requirement (as a minimum) to develop and maintain reliable region and country scale emission report system with accordance with established international practice.

Thank you for your attention! Research Laboratory of Fuels and Ecology, State Road Transport Research Institute, Ukraine