Energy in Transition: Embracing Disruption Dr Liam Wagner Economics, Griffith Business School 5th IAEE Asian Conference, February 2016 Department of Account,

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Presentation transcript:

Energy in Transition: Embracing Disruption Dr Liam Wagner Economics, Griffith Business School 5th IAEE Asian Conference, February 2016 Department of Account, Finance and Economics

The start of the global energy transition  The World is undergoing an unprecedented energy transformation due to: »Climate change policies »Highly Volatile fossil fuel prices »Rise of solar, wind & battery technology »Rising electricity prices (Australian Electricity Prices now amongst worlds highest – risk and opportunity »Tesla Powerwall to Australia first Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Australia’s Energy Landscape  Potential Privatisation of Transmission and Distribution Networks in QLD and NSW  Significant regulatory shifts in the last 10 years in energy policy  Renewable energy sector evolution following the RET contraction  Electricity price uncertainty and energy poverty Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Source: VCOSS

Department of Account, Finance and Economics Source: Queensland Competition Authority

Transformation of the electricity supply chain From: A few large fossil power stations sending power over long distances to the end consumer. Consumer is a passive participant only responding slowly to price changes. Department of Account, Finance and Economics To: A Mixture of large and small producers of energy. Consumer (Prosumer) is an active participant responding quickly to price and system conditions. Makes investment and operational decisions (Buy Solar, Discharge battery)

Asking, WHY? – Dominant Trends Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Fossil Fuels vs Solar Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Australia’s Electricity Sector Competitiveness:  Electricity systems are now facing their greatest challenges.  But the fundamental questions haven’t changed, just their implications for industry  How do you evaluate a power system and its ability?  During transition how do we promote the deployment of new technology?

Department of Account, Finance and Economics

 Marginal cost pass-through rates of increasing cost of carbon are established.  Market behaviour shifts to infra-marginal rent seeking under increasing carbon and natural gas costs.  Strategic behaviour of generators is established under these shifting conditions.

Department of Account, Finance and Economics The Australian government is committed to transitioning domestic power generation to lower-emissions intensive gas. Using PLEXOS we model what a transition to gas fired generation in the year 2035 would deliver. Compares a transition to power from gas to that from renewable technologies without total replacement of the existing fleet. Results show a transition to gas reduces emissions marginally but wholesale prices are higher than transition to renewables.

Department of Account, Finance and Economics We examine Australia's renewable energy policy, regulatory frameworks and incentives. This paper identifies the key barriers faced by the renewables industry. We show that the current policy framework favours mature technologies at the expense of emerging options.

Australia’s Electricity Sector Performance Department of Account, Finance and Economics  Measure power system competitiveness by identifying resilience: »Efficiency (system integrity) »Diversity (functional group variety) »Redundancy (regenerative capacity)  Compare Australia’s power system to competitor countries

Non Renewable Energy Use

Carbon Intensity

Generation Diversity

Generation Efficiency

OWN USE, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFICIENCY

Security – Reliance on Imports

Security - Spare electricity for use in earning income

Cost of Electricity to Industry

Country power profile: 2010 Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Country power resilience: 1990 Department of Account, Finance and Economics

Country power resilience: 2010 Department of Account, Finance and Economics

China more resilient than Australia?

Department of Account, Finance and Economics Japan more resilient than Australia?

Power Economy Competitiveness

The impact of power resilience Department of Account, Finance and Economics

This research has been funded by: Department of Account, Finance and Economics DP : Transition to Customer Response driven Networks