The BMBF Foresight Process Kerstin Cuhls, Walter Ganz, Philine Warnke Fraunhofer ISI and Fraunhofer IAO Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

The BMBF Foresight Process Outline 1.Objectives of the Process 2.Combination of Methods 3.Phases 4.Topic Fields 5.Expected Output and Impact of the Process 6.Outlook

The BMBF Foresight Process 1. Objectives of the BMBF Foresight Process 1)Identification of new focuses in research and technology 2)Designation of areas for cross-cutting activities 3)Exploration of fields for strategic partnerships 4)Derivation of priority activity lines for R&D policy

The BMBF Foresight Process 1. Combination of Foresight and Monitoring systematically … look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging of generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits (Martin 1995) or Thinking, Debating, Shaping the Future (EU) Foresight current status of research and technology including an update of the assessments concerning the state of the art during the process Monitoring

The BMBF Foresight Process 1. Combination of Foresight and Monitoring to monitor the state of the art to look into the longer term future to look back from the future

The BMBF Foresight Process 2. Combination of Methods

The BMBF Foresight Process 3. Phases

The BMBF Foresight Process 3. Current State of the Process Second Workshop (international) 9/10th October 2008 to prepare the next phase: How can new topics and cross-cutting issues be implemented? Online Survey to assess the topics from the scanning phase just finished analyses according to the criteria selected (statistics) qualitative analyses: selection of topics for further investigation that can be proposed to BMBF as new focus topics these will be worked out further Monitoring First Wave interviews with selected international experts around the worlds second Wave will start in Nov. 2008

The BMBF Foresight Process 4. Topic Fields (Online Survey) Materials ICT Nanotechnology Biotechnology Optical Technologies Industrial Production Processes Health Research Water Infrastructures Environment/ Sustainability Living Spaces ProducingConsumption 2.0 Energy Mobility Human-Machine Boundary Shifts Cognition Sciences Services Science Ageing Research Systems/ Complexity Simulation and Modelling Time Research

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process 1st Report to BMBF (March 2008)  communication with national and international experts  bringing in the long-term view  new and cross-cutting topics  new ideas for ways to implement these topics 2nd Report to BMBF (end 2008) 3rd Report to BMBF (July 2009) End conference to present the results (June/ July 2009)

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process ForLearn Guide (2007, see also Da Costa et al. 2008) Informing policy Facilitating policy implementation Embedding participation in policy-making Supporting policy definition Reconfiguring the policy system Symbolic function

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process The BMBF Foresight Process Symbolic function: much more than just symbolic Informing policy: one of the main points in the BMBF Foresight Process - Gaining an overview about topics that are relevant for and in science and technology with a longer-term view and codifying this knowledge in reports for BMBF - direct contribution to objectives no. 1 and 2 of the process Facilitating policy implementation: expectation that policy implementation will be facilitated by scanning information, by defining strategic partnerships and recommendations, as well as by including BMBF as one of the participants in the later phases of the process

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process The BMBF Foresight Process Embedding participation in policy-making: very different kinds of “experts” in interviews or just by their documentations - Experts from industry, policy-making itself, academia or the civil society in general (very broad definition of experts). - The Process is about science and technology, it needs experts who are able to understand and explain the topics, but also to assess them according to a set of BMBF criteria. - For this, in a broad online survey, many participants are approached to involve more persons than the well-known lobbies in the definition and the assessment of new topics. - This makes the complex process - hopefully - more transparent and understandable.

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process The BMBF Foresight Process Supporting policy definition: directly adresses objective no. 4 - International workshop in Oct directly contributed to the theoretical and case study discussion for the translation of outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation. - Later in the process, this will be performed very concretely in the thematic cases: in joint workshops and discussions, the topics and outcomes will be worked into recommendations for policy options.

The BMBF Foresight Process 5. Expected Output and Impact of the Process The BMBF Foresight Process Reconfiguring the policy system: every foresight exercise has an impact on the system the foresight is performed in. - direct reconfigurations by such a foresight process: doubted - indirectly, the system will react and change: there already is and will be an effect on the policy system itself, which makes it more apt to address long-term challenges In the BMBF Foresight Process, an impact is expected on the interdisciplinary or inter-departmental collaboration concerning new and especially cross-cutting topics (objectives 1 and 2).

The BMBF Foresight Process 6. Outlook Contribution to 1)Identification of new focuses in research and technology 2)Designation of areas for cross-cutting activities 3)Exploration of fields for strategic partnerships 4)Derivation of priority activity lines for R&D policy

The BMBF Foresight Process Thanks for your attention. For further information, see: