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Using Climate Forecast Information in Water Resource Planning: Opportunities and Challenges in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA Julie A. Vano Anne C. Steinemann Civil and Environmental Engineering AGU Fall Meeting December 11, 2007

Motivation Drought among most costly natural disaster Drought in Washington agriculture losses more than $400 million in 2001 and $300 million in 2005 Climate and hydrologic forecast information could help reduce impacts Connections needed with decision-makers Photo courtesy of

Research Objectives 1.How can forecast products be integrated into decision-making to reduce drought vulnerability? 2.What is an effective way to work with water managers and users to incorporate forecast information in decision-making?

Overview Yakima River Basin hydrology and water use Project goals and current approach Stakeholder interactions Scope and diversity of water management decisions Accuracy, usefulness, and limitations of forecast information Generalizable guidelines and findings Photo courtesy of

Yakima River Basin Hydrology Elevation 8184 ft to 340 ft Temp and precip 22  -76  F, 80 in-140 in at 2300 ft, 27  -90  F, 0 in-10 in at 350 ft 61% -81% precip in October-March Water supply during growing season in lower basin primarily from snowmelt, depends on reservoirs for storage Six USBR reservoirs with storage capacity of ~1 million acre-ft, ~25% unregulated runoff Managed system vulnerable to drought with increasing water use and changing snowpack

- Agriculture -Yakima County 5th in nation Ag production -Higher value crops, less stress tolerant -Fisheries, spring and fall Chinook salmon, summer Steelhead, Coho salmon -Hydroelectric, nine power plants -Public supply, population growth Water Use in Yakima Basin Photos courtesy of and

Changes in SWE, 2-3 Dec 2007 Using NOAA Climate Forecasts with Hydrological Assessments to Reduce Drought Vulnerabilities and Improve Water Management Washington State with focus on Yakima Basin Goals: 1) Explore model-based hydrologic drought indicators as triggers for management: soil moisture, SWE, streamflow estimations 2) Interact with water users and managers to integrate climate and hydrologic forecasts in decision-making

Changes in SWE, 2-3 Dec 2007 Using NOAA Climate Forecasts with Hydrological Assessments to Reduce Drought Vulnerabilities and Improve Water Management Washington State with focus on Yakima Basin Goals: 1) Explore model-based hydrologic drought indicators as triggers for management: soil moisture, SWE, streamflow estimations 2) Interact with water users and managers to integrate climate and hydrologic forecasts in decision-making

Changes in SWE, 2-3 Dec 2007 Using NOAA Climate Forecasts with Hydrological Assessments to Reduce Drought Vulnerabilities and Improve Water Management Washington State with focus on Yakima Basin Goals: 1) Explore model-based hydrologic drought indicators as triggers for management: soil moisture, SWE, streamflow estimations 2) Interact with water users and managers to integrate climate and hydrologic forecasts in decision-making

Step 1: Simply show up and listen

Stakeholder Interactions Attend USBR River Operations Meetings Understand how decisions made – people most involved – relevant meetings, reports, other resources Understand current water system – Total Water Supply Available (50%, 100%, 150% of average) – uses of and impressions of forecasts – stigma of past events – major concerns for future Photo courtesy of

Step 2: Ask how they would define a perfect forecast

Scope and diversity of water management decisions Decision-focused products need to identify where and when forecast information is most valuable Precipitation, temperature, and hydrologic flows Four decision-making realms: (1) filling reservoirs without flooding in winter and spring (2) increasing carryover while maintaining flows for fish in fall (3) week-to-week operations in summer (4) agricultural decisions in winter for irrigation season

Scope and diversity of water management decisions Decision-focused products need to identify where and when forecast information is most valuable Precipitation, temperature, and hydrologic flows Four decision-making realms: (1) filling reservoirs without flooding in winter and spring (2) increasing carryover while maintaining flows for fish in fall (3) week-to-week operations in summer (4) agricultural decisions in winter for irrigation season

Scope and diversity of water management decisions Decision-focused products need to identify where and when forecast information is most valuable Precipitation, temperature, and hydrologic flows Four decision-making realms: (1) filling reservoirs without flooding in winter and spring (2) increasing carryover while maintaining flows for fish in fall (3) week-to-week operations in summer (4) agricultural decisions in winter for irrigation season

Scope and diversity of water management decisions Decision-focused products need to identify where and when forecast information is most valuable Precipitation, temperature, and hydrologic flows Four decision-making realms: (1) filling reservoirs without flooding in winter and spring (2) increasing carryover while maintaining flows for fish in fall (3) week-to-week operations in summer (4) agricultural decisions in winter for irrigation season

Scope and diversity of water management decisions Decision-focused products need to identify where and when forecast information is most valuable Precipitation, temperature, and hydrologic flows Four decision-making realms: (1) filling reservoirs without flooding in winter and spring (2) increasing carryover while maintaining flows for fish in fall (3) week-to-week operations in summer (4) agricultural decisions in winter for irrigation season

Step 3: Provide and evaluate forecast products in ways that matter to users

Climate Prediction Center Three-Month Outlooks Climate Division 74

Accuracy, usefulness, and limitations of forecast information Directional Skill: What percentage of time is the forecast in the "right" direction? Above Normal (AN) or Below Normal (BN) CPC Seasonal Forecast Climate Division 74, lead time 0.5 month, Temp more skillful than precip according to this measure 69% 19% 10% 2% Temperature

Accuracy, usefulness, and limitations of forecast information Directional Skill: What percentage of time is the forecast in the "right" direction? Above Normal (AN) or Below Normal (BN) CPC Seasonal Forecast Climate Division 74, lead time 0.5 month, Temp more skillful than precip according to this measure 69% 19% 10% 2% Temperature 71%

Accuracy, usefulness, and limitations of forecast information Directional Skill: What percentage of time is the forecast in the "right" direction? Above Normal (AN) or Below Normal (BN) CPC Seasonal Forecast Climate Division 74, lead time 0.5 month, Temp more skillful than precip according to this measure 69% 19% 10% 2% TemperaturePrecipitation 28% 30% 22% 20% 48% 71%

Hydrological Assessments Soil moisture in December, drought declared in March Drought develops slowly, land surface buffer Upper Yakima Basin 2001 Drought VIC Shraddhanand Shukla and Andrew Wood, H43A-096

Next Steps Involve more stakeholders Investigate 6-10, 8-14 day climate forecasts Provide localized hydrology and drought triggers Deliver, obtain feedback on, and revise products Photo courtesy of

Findings Challenges: Water managers need both supply and demand information Spatial scale of forecasts differ from management decisions Additional forecasts and skill measures will be explored Opportunities: Stakeholders are engaged, interested, and committed Weekly hydrologic information could be useful in summer Research can help reduce drought impacts Photo courtesy of

Acknowledgements COLLABORATORS -Andrew W. Wood, Univ of Washington -Shraddhanand Shukla, Univ of Washington (Poster H43A-096, Thursday afternoon) -Chris Lynch, US Bureau of Reclamation FUNDING -University of Washington Presidential Fellowship -NOAA Sector Applications Research Program (SARP)

THANK YOU!! Julie Vano

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Forecast

Climate Prediction Center Climate Divisions

Snowmelt timing

VIC diagram

Location of temp data Kennewick COOP Lake Kachess

skill graphs of various lead times

Explore Potential Understand Context Define Applications Assess Potential Benefits and Costs Check Feasibility Evaluate Forecasts Specify Products Deliver, Obtain Feedback On, and Revise Product Get Forecasts Used Iterate Working with water users to incorporate forecasts Step 1 Step 2 Step 3