Futures thinking and EfS THINK. CHANGE. DO

 ISF, UTS Education for sustainability is futures education >Questioning current trends >Imagining preferable alternatives >Understanding competing worldviews >Building capacity for social foresight Education for sustainability means developing students’ capacity for social foresight See Slaughter, R. A. (2006). Pathways and Impediments to Social Foresight.

 ISF, UTS Futures in education “Young people are passionately interested in their own futures, and that of the society in which they live. They universally ‘jump at the chance’ to study something with such intrinsic interest that also intersects with their own life interests in so many ways…For teachers and schools, on the other hand, teaching about futures can either be deeply inspiring or profoundly threatening”. “Foresight is a human capacity that allows human beings to order their priorities, navigate a complex ‘present’ and, furthermore, actively deal with the ‘not here’ and the ‘not yet’”. ~ Richard A Slaughter, 2004 Gidley, JM, Bateman, D and Smith, C (2004), Futures in Education: Principles, practice and potential.

 ISF, UTS Slaughter, R. A. (2006). Pathways and Impediments to Social Foresight. EfS should equip students with futures concepts and tools

 ISF, UTS Futures concepts >The future is not fixed – many futures are possible >Probable futures –Where are we heading? >Possible futures –Where could we go? >Preferred futures –Where do we want to go? >Prospective futures –What will we do to create a desired future? Each approach provides educational opportunities See Gidley, JM, Bateman, D and Smith, C (2004), Futures in Education: Principles, practice and potential.

 ISF, UTS ApproachProbablePossiblePreferredProspective Type of workPredictive, quantitative, trend is destiny (one future) Cultural – interpretive, utopian (many futures) Critical – post- modernist, ideological (an ‘other’ future) Integral, transformational, empowering (futuring) MethodsQuantitative, forecasting, surveys, trend scenarios Qualitative, dialogues, collaborative, creative visions Text analysis, critique of media, cultural artifacts, visioning Integral, visioning, action planning, action research GoalGeneralisation, extrapolation Opening alternative possibilities Critical awareness, deconstruction Empowerment, change, transformation Learning opportunity Understanding system dynamics Creativity and interpersonal skills Critical thinking, awareness of other values Learning through doing After Gidley, JM, Bateman, D and Smith, C (2004), Futures in Education: Principles, practice and potential.

 ISF, UTS Futures tools and methods: visioning >Creative, fun, imaginative process –Narratives / stories / scenarios –Visual arts (collage, drawing, film) –Performance >Creating a lived experience of what futures might feel like >Drawing out alternative worldviews –The future is a blank page –How you fill it reveals a lot about your values and worldview Example: ISF used STEEP (society, technology, economy, environment, politics) to guide visioning on the future of Melbourne’s wastewater system

 ISF, UTS Futures tools and methods: backcasting >Forecasting extrapolates trends forward from the present >Backcasting starts with a desirable future and works backwards –Develop a normative vision of the future –Identify feasible pathways towards that future –Develop an action plan for what would need to happen and when >Can be an iterative process where desired future emerges from social learning Example: The Georgia Basin Futures Project in Canada used a participatory backcasting approach to identify pathways to desirable futures within the Georgia Basin catchment. Robinson, J (2003), Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning, Futures, 35, pp

 ISF, UTS Futures tools and methods: causal layered analysis LayerDescriptionQuestions The litanyThe official public or media description of an issue What might a current overdramatised newspaper headline about this issue look like? Systemic causes Social, technological, economic, environmental, political and historical factors. Provides interpretation based on quantitative data, technical explanations and academic analysis. How and why did the issue arise? Who is involved? What is the source of the litany? Why was it presented? Who is being quoted - what is their involvement? What are the underlying causes? Discourse / worldview Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions Who are the stakeholders? What values do they have? Who usually talks and lobbies about this issue? What do they stand to lose or gain? Who has the most control over the issue? Myth / metaphor Unconscious, emotive dimensions of the issue. What is an image or phrase that encapsulates what has been uncovered so far? What work of fiction, movie, poetry, art, etc. evokes an image of the issue being discussed? Are there any myths that may constrain thinking or acting in relation to this issue? S. Inayatullah, Causal Layered Analysis: Poststructuralism as Method, Futures 30 (8) (1998) Serafino de Simone, 2004, Causal Layered Analysis: A Cookbook Approach, in: The Causal Layered Analysis Reader.

 ISF, UTS Futures tools and methods: integral futures Ken Wilber, The Integral Vision Richard Slaughter, Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight. Brown, B.C. & Riedy, C.J. 2006, 'Use of the Integral Framework to Design Developmentally- Appropriate Sustainability Communications' in Filho, W.L (eds), Innovation, Education and Communication for Sustainable Development, Peter Lang Scientific Publishers, Frankfurt, Germany, pp

 ISF, UTS Barriers to futures in education >Critique of business as usual –Potential for ideological conflicts >Overcoming simplistic media images of the future (the litany) –Optimism about personal future –Pessimism about global future >There is no ‘textbook’ for the future –Challenging work for teachers How might these barriers be overcome to develop the social foresight capacity we need to move towards sustainability?