School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council Presentation to Grammar School Chairs of Governors and Headteachers 22 nd June copies

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council Tonight’s Agenda How are grammar schools going to deal with the 14 to 19 agenda, especially the specialist diplomas linked to the common prospectus and application process at the age of 13? The Purpose of tonight’s meeting is to share with you some emerging issues which we believe will impact on the Lincolnshire Grammar schools and to discuss the best way forward. How does falling rolls and potential changes in the mix of population impact on selection at 11?

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council Policy on Grammar Schools Lincolnshire County Council is committed to high quality grammar school education. It wishes to see academic excellence from its grammar schools It does not wish to see grammar schools filling their places with children who are not best suited to a grammar school education It believes the best way of retaining it grammar schools is through ensuring they are high performing schools.

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council

Year 6 Primary 2005 – 7,884 pupils Year 7 Secondary 2005 – 8,592 pupils Traditionally a net increase of 230 to 415 pupils Lets assume a net intake of 330 pupils in 2006 This gives a transfer number of 8,214 pupils which is 4.5% down on year 7 in Current 2005 secondary population 11 – 16 is 43,270 Estimate 2010 secondary population 11 – 16 is 38,500 This represents a total fall of 11% in total population assuming a net intake of pupils in year 7 Key data on future numbers at secondary level

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council Characteristics of Lincolnshire’s changing population  Birth rate falling – disproportionate changes from high socio- economic groups small families (1.2) on a much longer cycle (approx 35 years) to low socio-economic groups smaller families (2.3) on a much shorter cycle (approx 23 years)  Inward migration of above average students into Lincolnshire from borders, mainly grammar schools plus Welbourn – some students leave to attend comprehensives across the border  High level building developments are not being translating into significant increase in school aged children  Significant immigration in south and east of county from Portugal and Eastern Europe – E2L & relatively low ability and low aspirational children.

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council

Grammar School % level 5 on intake

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council

Grammar School % level 5 on intake LCC performance Key Stage 2 Level 5 over the last 5 years has been between 26% and 31% in English and Mathematics. If grammar schools are taking the top 25% of pupils why do you on average have approximately 65% of pupils entering with level 5’s in English and/or maths? Only 3 schools have over 75% of intake with level 5 in English. 8 have over 75% in maths Grammar school intake - 5% level 3 in maths or English – e.g. bottom 23% of Lincs pupils

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council %A*A Capped APS Gramma r 5A*C Capped APS Comprehensiv e Sec Moderns 5A*C Capped APS National Rank Order distribution of school performance 100th 60th 20th 40th 80th RANK ORDER 1st

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council

Two thirds of Lincolnshire pupils attend school in selective areas, some selective areas have very significant falls in population. The danger is that grammar schools will continue to fill their places leaving the secondary modern population more limited in ability Impact analysis of this data on Lincolnshire schools e.g. In East Lindsey 47% reached 5A* to C, if the grammar schools take 30% of the intake next year, the 70% of pupils left could be projected to get 17% which is 24.3% overall of the Sec. Mod. intake The secondary moderns could then have an impossible task of getting above floor targets – leading to government intervention This could impact further on standards in grammar schools and lead to more failing grammar schools – many could be challenged as ‘coasting’

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council If change is necessary, what should we all be doing? Areas for discussion? Can we guarantee place for those with level 5’s? Can you carry on as before? Do we need to look for partnerships of grammar schools? What are your aspirations for grammar school education? Is our analysis correct?

School Improvement Service in Partnership with Lincolnshire County Council Are you planning local partnerships to offer such courses in you school? What are views on dealing with vocational options at the age of 14? If YES, will you be limiting access, e.g. Selecting or will it be open access? You may not be allowed through the gateway approval mechanisms if selective? Ideally we need some common policy for students across our grammar schools? What happens to the specialist status, if you do not offer such options?