1. Developing Synthetic Temperature-Correlated Wind Generation Data Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010

2. January 29, 2010Steering Committee2 Integrating Wind Uncertainty into Adequacy Analysis Objective: Develop a wind-generation data series analogous to the 70-year streamflow record Two approaches have been tested: –Statistical (Moving Block Bootstrap) –Historical Meteorology (Atmospheric Modeling) Both approaches have pros and cons but the statistical method is being used

3. January 29, 2010Steering Committee3 Modeling Uncertainties GENESYS simulates resource dispatch on an hourly basis over many different potential futures Random variables include: –Hydro conditions (70-year natural streamflow record) –Thermal operation (forced outages) –Temperature (results in load variation) –Wind generation variation Historical data indicates that wind generation is correlated with temperature Monthly average streamflows are assumed to be independent of monthly average temperature

4. January 29, 2010Steering Committee4 Statistical Approach for Wind To develop a temperature-correlated wind data set, a statistical method is used (kNN bootstrap) This method incorporates the dependence that has been observed in the historical record into the synthetic wind data set –Creates a larger wind-generation data set by using temperature records that predate the wind fleet –Keeps the statistical correlation of wind and load in developing a synthetic wind record

5. January 29, 2010Steering Committee5 Status Update BPA has run a study using hourly load center temperature data (limited data set). The method is being reworked to use daily load center temperature max and min observations to increase data range The synthetic temperature-correlated wind data set for Genesys use should be available by the end of April.