2. How long will it take for Red Delicious to start making money? David Allan and David Marshall January 11, 2001

3. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers Alternate bearing since 1994, but production appears to be trending downward in deference to other varieties. When will it level off?

4. Source: Growers Clearing House

7. Can advertising affect this declining demand line?

8. Assuming a reduction of 2.5 million boxes each year, we will reach economic viability around ’03/05. Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

9. If Red Growers react slower, and production drops by 1.5 million boxes each year, we wouldn’t get down to profitable levels until 2005 / 2007. Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

10. Source: Growers Clearing House

12. Old Red Crop Shipments 1998-99 Crop 1999-00 Crop Total Shipments 52,22241,397 Shipped After Sep 1 of New 1,695 3.2% 2,282 5.5% Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

13. Source: Growers Clearing House

16. Source: US Apple, 1998

17. Source: US Apple, 2000

18. Source: Pure Speculation WHAT IF WE REMOVED… 36% of the Red Production 20% of the Gold production 50% of the Rome and McIntosh, 50% of the 'other' varieties, especially those grown for processing. ????? WHAT WILL FILL THE HOLE?

19. Contact Info: David Allan 3630 Lateral B Wapato, WA 98951 509-877-2065 dallan@allanbro.com David Marshall 408 North First Street Yakima, WA 98901 509-453-4851 dwmarshall@agrimgt.com Copies of this material are available upon request. This Power Point presentation can be downloaded at: http://www.agrimgt.com/newsletters.htm