1. Nancy J. Brown, LBNL Kick-off of the CEC Seasonal Modeling Study Sacramento, August 15 2005 A Seasonal Perspective on Regional Air Quality in Central California

2. Talk Outline Objective Approach Task Structure Preliminary Results

3. Team Members Nancy Brown, Shaheen Tonse, Ling Jin UCB: Robert Harley, Allison Steiner NOAA: Jim Wilczak, Sara Michelson, Jian-Wen Bao DOE: computing cluster at LBNL Other agencies contributed to building modeling system: CARB, EPA, DOE, and NOAA. Their support is gratefully acknowledged.

4. Research Objectives: Use CMAQ with state-of-the-art emissions, meteorological, and chemical inputs to model air quality in Central California for summer 2000. Estimate how regional control strategy options for both 1-hour, 120 ppb, and new 8-hour, 80 ppb ozone standards change with respect to time and location.

5. Goals of CEC Research Understand how emission control requirements and need for more electric generating capacity can be optimized in space and time to bring Central California into compliance with a.q. standards Evaluate air quality impacts of energy generation Examine issues associated with improving air quality through energy efficiency and load management.

6. Approach Model: CMAQ Emissions: CARB and UCB/LBL Meteorology: NOAA Chemistry: SAPRC99 Model Diagnostics: —Performance statistics and visualization —PAW, ROOT*(data interrogation) —DDM*(sensitivity analysis) —Process Analysis*(accounting for processes)

7. Task Structure--Overview Task 1 – Administrative and reporting Task 2 – Develop modeling protocol Task 3 – Prepare modeling system and conduct modeling Task 4 – Reduce model data and analyze model results Task 5 – Use modeling to estimate air quality implications of inter basin emission trading Task 6—Technology transfer activities

8. Task 2 – Develop modeling protocol Contribute to development of protocol that describes all phases of the seasonal modeling study including project schedule, input data preparation methods, modeling and analysis tools, performance evaluation, and plans for interpretation and dissemination of the results. Present protocol document for review and comment by CEC and coordinate with CCOS Technical Committee.

9. Task 3 – Prepare modeling system and conduct modeling--Goals Enhance computational efficiency of CMAQ —Load balancing—and for DOE reduced chemistry Prepare model-ready input files —Met files (NOAA), emission files (CARB-UCB-LBL), files of observations (all—for DOE -satellite observations), special attention will be given to emissions from power generating sources—especially on hot days Review and critique observational data Conduct modeling of episodes, weeks, and a season

10. Task 4 – Reduce model data and analyze model results Evaluate analysis methods Evaluate model performance Quantify and diagnose pollutant response to precursor emissions Using diagnostic tools determine differences in pollutant responses to precursor emissions for episodes, weeks, and a season

11. Task 4 – Probing tools—developed with DOE support Large emphasis on analysis tools used in concert Statistical tools —Physics analysis workstation (PAW), time series analysis, clustering of modeling results* Sensitivity Analysis —DDM for emissions, initial condition, boundary conditions —Will extend to chemistry and met with DOE support Process Analysis —Quantifies roles of chemistry and various transport processes in the production of a species in a grid volume or collection of them —Quantifies relative importance of different chemical pathways

12. Task 4-Outcomes Evaluate model performance by comparing with observations Determine capabilities of analysis methods –test with a multi-day episode Estimate pollutant response to source categories Estimate pollutant response to precursor emission Determine relative roles of inter- and intra-basin transport Examine differences in pollutant response for different periods of time

13. Task 5 – Use modeling to estimate air quality implications of inter basin emission trading LBNL will work with another CEC-funded investigator to use modeling to estimate the air quality benefits and limitations of different emission’s trading schemes, and to select specific periods during the summer of 2000 that had particularly high ozone and inconsistent (in space and time) NOx and VOC limitation.

14. DOE support Commitment for one year of support Research tasks: Modeling protocol Evaluate oil and gas emissions for SJV Reduce computational burden of chemistry Use satellite products for model validation and improvements Create new modeling tools—DDM for chemistry and met variables

15. Bias (nudged-obs)

16. Bias (nud-unnud)

17. Gross error (nudged-observations)

18. Gross error (nud-unnud)

19. Conclusion CEC study was launched in July. Expect DOE support within the next month.