1. Political Socialization  The way people acquire their political values.  Family members.  School and peers.School and peers  Media, especially television.  Religion.Religion  Demographics: race, ethnicity, gender, age, and region.raceethnicitygender  Outside events.

2. Figure 11.1- First-Year Student Ideology  Back

3. Political Socialization – Life/Generation

4. Teenagers prefer an anything-goes type situation. Early 20’s they quickly develop progressive economic ideas while in the job market. In their late 20s, they start making real money. Economic progressivism goes out the window - As the adult mind turns to more material matters, social views don't change that much. Finally, after the mid-40s, retirement looms. Our former teenagers check their collective 401(k)s and think, you know what, let's all get checks from the government. Social views take a hard turn for the more restrictive. At the end of the journey, economic and social views are again in agreement—only this time on the other side of the philosophical line!

5. Political Preference & Voting Behavior

7. Political Socialization - Education Higher education = higher likelihood of voting

8. Political Socialization - Education Higher education = higher likelihood of voting

9. Political Socialization - Education Currently, the voting behavior of this group is quite close to the behavior of the electorate as a whole. Those with a high school education have voted Republican in the presidential elections, and those with post graduate degrees are voting Democrat. Businesspersons without an MBA are more likely to have a bachelors or no college degree, tend to vote Republican.

10. Political Socialization - Education

11. Political Socialization - Religion In the past religious affiliation was a much better predictor of voting preferences than it is today.

12. Political Socialization - Religous Religious commitment is measured by regular churchgoing. They can be called conservative, evangelical, or fundamentalist. Voters who are devout tend to vote Republican; those that are not tend to vote Democrat.

13. Political Socialization - Hispanics Hispanics – usually vote as an entire block. In 2000, Hispanics turned to support Bush’s campaign based on religious and family values and patriotism. It wasn’t until talk of comprehensive immigration reform that Republicans opposed granting undocumented workers citizenship, that Hispanic Americans turned to Democratic candidates. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1024/exit- poll-analysis-hispanics

14. Political Socialization - Hispanics Cuban Americans (mostly Florida) tend to vote Republican. Hispanic Americans tend to vote Democratic.

15. Political Socialization – Gender Gap Women have different agendas than men Candidates have taken notice and now appeal to issues that women tend to be concerned with, such as the environment, security, social welfare, and civil rights. http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/gend ergap.html

16. Political Socialization – Gender Gap The “Gender Gap” is the difference between how men and women vote for candidates. http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/gend ergap.html

17. Table 11.1- Gender Differences  Back

18. Figure 11.2- Religious Self-Identification  Back

19. AV- Racial and Ethnic Attitudes  Back

20. Defining Public Opinion Sometimes the differences in opinion are not so wide.

21. History of Public Opinion Polls  Successes of Literary Digest from 1920-1932.  Used straw polls to make predictions.  Literary Digest was incorrect in 1936; 3 errors in sample  1. Used car ownership records and telephone directories  2. Mailed in early September-too early  3. People had to mail back in-only motivated people did so  George Gallup made correct prediction- pioneer in public opinion polling  NES- National Election Study (U. of Michigan) has been useful in categorizing Americans since 1952  Continues to be successful today.Continues to be successful today

22. Figure 11.4- The Gallup Poll  Back

24. Conducting Public Opinion Polls  Determining content and phrasing questions—VERY IMPORTANTDetermining content and phrasing questions  Selecting sample- Must determine “the universe” to sample (ie. Republicans, white Ohio women who have children under age 18) Most use only 600- 1000 people.  random sampling- Sounds good, but certain groups may be favored  stratified sampling- used most. Use of census data to figure out which groups represent the voting population  Contacting respondent  Random digit dialing is most popular.- MUST BE VERY CAREFUL-EVERY DETAIL IS IMPORTANT, DOWN TO TONE AND ACCENT!Random digit dialing  Internet is extremely ineffective

25. Defining Public Opinion Sometimes they are

26. Defining Public Opinion Opinion Trends on Abortion http://www.gallup.com/poll/147734/Americans-Split-Along-Pro-Choice-Pro-Life-Lines.aspx

27. Figure 11.5- Opinion on Gas Taxes  Back

28. Types of Political Polls  Push polls are used to influence opinion- usually give negative or false information about a candidate  Tracking polls are taken on a daily basis- tracks opinion over timeTracking polls are taken on a daily basis  Exit polls are taken after leaving a polling place.  Entrance polls have become more popular lately as well

29. Figure 11.7- Daily Tracking Poll  Back

30. Shortcomings of Polling  Must consider margin of error (about 4% for poll with 1000 respondents)  May make errors in selecting the sample.  Polls limit respondents’ options.  People may not have enough information to answer.  Measures of intensity may be imprecise.

31. Public Opinion Polls - Problems Outdated Undecided voters Leading questions Unscientific/Fraudulent Poll questions Sampling errors (difference between a sample’s results and the true result of the entire population that had been interviewed.)

32. Table 11.2- Political Knowledge Back

33. Figure 11.8- Public Opinion on Iraq  Back

34. Influences on Public Opinion  Political socialization.  Personal benefits- People want to know how something will effect them (ie. Pocketbook voting)Personal benefits  Political knowledge, or lack thereof.Political knowledge  Cues from leaders.  Political ideology.

35. Politics and Public Opinion The majority of Americans are not fully informed. What’s in the best interest of the country may not be popular with citizens. Politicians can’t solely rely on public opinion polls

36. Effects of Public Opinion  May influence the course of public policy. (especially if you prescribe to delegate style representational theory)  Some critics argue this weakens democracy.  Creation of bandwagon and underdog effects.

37. Public Concerns