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S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 1 Using Intervals for Global.

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Presentation on theme: "S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 1 Using Intervals for Global."— Presentation transcript:

1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 1 Using Intervals for Global Sensitivity Analyses in Multiattribute Value Trees by Mats Lindstedt, Raimo P. Hämäläinen, and Jyri Mustajoki

2 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 2 Outline of presentation Uncertainties Sensitivity analysis Intervals Intervals in sensitivity analyses Example Conclusion

3 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 3 Uncertainties present everywhere Uncertainties are present in any real decision situations and need to be analytically modeled

4 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 4 Sensitivity analyses 1/2 Single-parameter tests Tornado diagrams Scenario analysis

5 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 5 Sensitivity analyses 2/2 Single-parameter tests tend to overestimate problem sensitivity Parameter interactions Complex methods confusing to decision maker How much uncertainty is reasonable, what does a 0.1 change in decision weights mean?

6 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 6 Intervals Intervals to describe impreciseness Several different techniques Dominance concepts, decision rules Computer softtware; PrimeDecision, Winpre

7 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 7 Intervals in sensitivity analyses First exact values then uncertainty added with intervals Worst case analysis Key uncertainties Acceptable loss of value Groups of factors with different levels of uncertainty Measurement data vs preferences

8 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 8 Example 1/3 Nuclear emergency management, case: milk production Ongoing work, decision conferencing Real decision makers

9 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 9 Example 2/3 6 alternative strategies First crisp values Preferences given by groups of DMs (farmers,dairy industry, authorities experts on radiation) Uncertainties

10 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 10 Example 3/3 Adding uncertainties with intervals 3 cases: preferences, alternatives, preferences & alternatives The model turned out to be robust

11 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology 15th MCDM conference - Ankara Mats Lindstedt - 11.07.2000 / 11 Conclusion Interval sensitivity analyses to quickly check impact of all combined uncertainties Easy, fast, flexible Worst case analysis Increase confidence and commitment to the chosen course of action

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