1. The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar: Theoretical Relevance and Practical Applications Mario GIAMPIETRO ICREA Research Professor <giampietro@liphe4.org>

2. Content of the presentation: 1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor 2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society 3. Conclusions

4. Would you believe someone telling you that at the next World Cup the players of the various EU national teams, during the month of that competition, will eat ¼ of what they eat now, and will generate a ¼ of the excrements they generate now?

5. Total mass = 70 kg Endosomatic Flow = 81 W Metabolic Rate = 1.16 W/kg WHOLE level n PARTS level n-1 kg W/kgW Liver 1.8 9.717.4 Brain 1.4 11.616.2 Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4 Kidneys 0.321.3 6.4 Muscles 28.0 0.616.8 Fat15.0 0.2 3.0 Others 23.2 0.6 14.0 brain heart liver kidney muscles 1 kg of brain = 10 kg of body 1 kg of heart = 21 kg of body !!!!!!!! We don’t believe it because we have a multi-level knowledge of human metabolism!

6. Whole Weight 70 kg Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg Parts liver 2.5% brain 2.0% heart 0.4% kidneys 0.4% muscles 40.0% Fat 21.4% others 33.1% Metabolic rate: W/kg Weight: kg Total Body 70.0 1.2 81.0 kg W/kgW ORGANS of an ADULT MAN (70 kg mass) Liver 1.8 9.717.4 Brain 1.4 11.616.2 Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4 Kidneys0.321.3 6.4 Muscles 28.0 0.616.8 Fat tissue 15.0 0.2 3.0 Others brain muscles heart fat liver Definition of lower level metabolic elements useful for generating a mosaic effect Total mass 70 kg Total Energy flow 81 W Others 23.2 0.6 14.0 Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg kidneys Human Body

7. Whole Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (hours per year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h HA i EMR i ET i Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year) Functional Compartments of CATALONIA EM sector 0.06 2,000 120 BM sector 1.95 331 547 SG sector 3.6 75 270 AG sector 0.15 175 27 HH sector 55.1 2.8 155 Society 60.8 18.4 1,120 THAEMR SA TET Household Sector (HH) BM EM Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (year) Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h SG CATALONIA 2005 AG Parts BM sectors 3.2% out of scale! EM sector 0.1% SG sector 6% HH sector 91% EMR i : MJ/hour HA i : hours/year AG sector 0.2%

8. 1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor

9. Introducing Bio-Economic Pressure as a biophysical indicator of economic development

10. % of work force in industry Infant Mortality Rate STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 1 STAGE 2 1980 2007 Infant Mortality Rate Life Expectancy at Birth BEP STAGE 2 STAGE 1 Infant Mortality Rate vs BEP Life Expectancy at Birth vs BEP

11. Studying structural changes of socio-economic systems due to economic development/technical progress

16. Changes in economic structure for selected countries Source of figure: MA 2005.

17. The position of 82 countries over 27 years – 2214 points!

19. 2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society

20. How useful is the indicator TET/GDP?  the energy intensity of “an economy”

21. TET GDP $ MJ El Salvador = 12.6 MJ/$ Finland = 12.6 MJ/$ = TET THA GDP THA Year 1997 MJ US$ =12.6 !!! No significance ! No external referent ! Finland = 29.73 MJ/hr El Salvador = 2.92 MJ/hr Finland = 2.35 $/hr El Salvador = 0.23 $/hr (20,600 $/year p.c) (2,020 $/year p.c)

22. GDP THA TET THA €/hour MJ/hour

23. At the level n – the whole society GDP THA €/hour TET THA MJ/hour

24. Whole Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (hours per year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h HA i EMR i ET i Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year) Functional Compartments of CATALONIA EM sector 0.06 2,000 120 BM sector 1.95 331 547 SG sector 3.6 75 270 AG sector 0.15 175 27 HH sector 55.1 2.8 155 Society 60.8 18.4 1,120 THAEMR SA TET Household Sector (HH) BM EM Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (year) Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h SG CATALONIA 2005 AG Parts BM sectors 3.2% out of scale! EM sector 0.1% SG sector 6% HH sector 91% EMR i : MJ/hour HA i : hours/year AG sector 0.2%

25. MJ/hour GDP THA €/hour Whole Society level n PW sector (production) level n-1 HH sector (consumption) level n-1 At the level n-1 – production vs consumption (Paid Work sector versus Household sector) GDP HA PW EMR HH EMR PW EMR SA

26. ET i HA i €/hour MJ/hour The metabolic pattern of Germany across hierarchical levels GDP i HA i EMR i GDP/hour HH THA Level n-1 Level n Level n-2

27. Level n-1 EMR AS MJ/hour €/hour EMR HH EMR PW GDP/THA ELP PW ELP AG ELP PS* ELP SG 17 MJ/hour 3 €/hour 150 MJ/hour 27 €/hour 2 MJ/hour Level n-2 Level n 14 €/hour 33 €/hour 28 €/hour EMR AG 60 MJ/hour EMR PS 300 MJ/hour EMR SG 80 MJ/hour 80 MJ/hour EXTERNAL REFERENT EXTERNAL REFERENT EXTERNAL REFERENT

28. Level n Level n-1 Level n-2 The metabolic pattern of Spain across levels

29. Level n Level n-1 Level n-2 The metabolic pattern of UK across levels

30. Belgium FinlandSweden France Germany Netherlands Austria ItalyUK GreecePortugalSpain

31. Belgium FinlandSweden France Germany Netherlands Austria ItalyUK GreecePortugalSpain

32. Productive sector Service sector GDP/hour Exploring the metabolic pattern at level n-2 Household Energy consumption MJ/hour Ireland Finland Portugal Sweeden

33. whole part GERMANY IRELAND UK SPAIN 1992-2005 Level n Level n-1 Level n-2 ! The metabolic pattern of EU countries across levels

34. 3. Conclusions

35. The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization 1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765] AB C A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC); B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC); C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC); D D - Watts steam engine of 1765 starting the Industrial Phase (1930-2025) 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated] EFGH E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value; F - Peak energy-use; G - Present energy-use; H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value 3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond] JKL J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.