1. ILUTE Event-Driven Time-Series Based Dynamic Model of Decision Making Processes Conceptual Framework Agenda Formation M. Litwin and E. Miller

2. ILUTE Presentation outline  Deficiencies of existing modeling frameworks  Conceptual framework  Agenda Formation  Research direction

3. ILUTE Typical approach WORKSHOPPINGNIGHT SLEEPHH DUTIES WORKSHOPPINGNIGHT SLEEP JOINT SOCIAL EVENT WORKSHOPPINGNIGHT SLEEP JOINT SOCIAL EVENT HH DUTIES

4. ILUTE Deficiencies of existing frameworks  Lack of coherent theoretical foundation  Crude conceptualization of time  Insufficient representation of dynamics  Lack of dynamic interface with network performance models  Limited communication with other model components  Lack of explicit agenda formation  Sequential activity and destination / mode choice processes  Crude representation of joint activities at the household level and lack of provisions for interactions between households

5. ILUTE John McTaggart, 1866-1925  A series – series of positions from past to present to future  B series – series of positions from earlier to later  C series – series of events

6. ILUTE Sir James Jeans, 1877-1946  Conceptual time – exists only in the mind of an individual, multidimensional  Perceptual time – acts of perception come one after another, one-dimensional  Physical time – time of physics and astronomy  Absolute time – counterpart of Newton’s absolute space

7. ILUTE A-SPACE Buy a car At home Time Horizon Framework Work C-SPACE of EVENTS Got a job Left home Called spouse Pick-up child Shopping Dentist OBSERVED SCHEDULEPROVISIONAL SCHEDULE WORKGROCERY PICK-UP AT HOME Physical Time Traffic Jam Left work B-SPACE MENTAL SIMULATION NOW

8. ILUTE Modify A-Space Link NOW with Time Horizon and project activities / projects from A-Space into B-Space Modify provisional schedule (activity and travel characteristics) Generate EVENTS in C-Space Move NOW to the next Event Build observed schedule End of modeled interval reached? NO STOP YES Location Choice Auto Ownership Dynamic Traffic Assignment Regional Economics Flows & TT’s Land Use Government Policies Transportation System Demographics External Impacts Figure ONE

9. ILUTE Where to go from there?  Need to change conceptual approach  Intervals in physical time scale vs. events, time series and relations  Need to look at social sciences and psychology  Social context of decision making  Social networks  Functions of activities  The role of the actor and its orientation

10. ILUTE Talcott Parsons, 1902-1979 Crucial feature of societies, as of biological organisms, is homeostasis (maintaining a stable state), and that their parts can be understood only in terms of the whole. Ref. "The Social System" 1951

11. ILUTE Functionalism in sociology PERSON ACTOR (role) Socialization Orientation Rational Afective Catetic ACTIVITY SYSTEM PATTERNS

12. ILUTE Weekly household activity scheduling process model Doherty, S. T. and Axhausen, K. W. 1999. The development of a unified modelling framework for the household activity-travel scheduling process. In W. Brilon, F. Huber, M. Schreckengerg, and H. Wallentowitz (eds.) Traffic and Mobility: Simulation-Economics-Environment, pp. 35-56. Berlin: Springer.The development of a unified modelling framework for the household activity-travel scheduling process

13. ILUTE Functionalism and ILUTE PERSON ACTOR (role) Socialization Orientation Rational Afective Catetic ACTIVITY SYSTEM PATTERNS HH Member Discriminant function Planned Pre- planned Impulsive Statistics, Econometrics, Maslow, Hägerstrand, Cognitive processes PATTERNS Socio- demographic characteristics

14. ILUTE The Box Doherty, S. T. et al. (2000) A conceptual model of the weekly household activity-travel scheduling process

15. ILUTE Action system the Four-Function Paradigm ADAPTATION (ECONOMY) GOAL ATTAINMENT (POLITY) LATENCY (CULTURE) INTEGRATION (SOCIETY)

16. ILUTE Action system the Four-Function Paradigm AT HOME WORK PERSONAL BUSINESS SPORT SCHOOL SOCIAL & RELIGIOUS

17. ILUTE Research directions  Implementation of the framework  Agenda formation with provisional sequence  Development of the B-space using CHASE  Replacing activity classification approach with functional approach

18. ILUTE Event-Driven Time-Series Based Dynamic Model of Decision Making Processes Conceptual Framework Agenda Formation M. Litwin and E. Miller Thank you