1. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 1 Small Area Population Estimates for Scotland Quality Assurance Harvey Snowling General Register Office for Scotland BSPS Conference, 18-20 September 2006

2. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 2 Overview of presentation Background Quality assurance SAPE vs. Administrative data Conclusions

3. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 3 Background

4. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 4 Small Area Population Estimates SAPE 2001-2004 –Published October 2005 –Data zone population estimates by gender, age –Constrained by mid-year estimates at LA level SAPE 2005 –October 2006 publication

5. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 5 Cohort-component method –'Base' population sex/age structure –Remove 'special' populations (armed forces, prisoners) –'Age-on' remainder by 1 year –Incorporate births, deaths, migration, asylum seekers –Replace updated 'special' populations –Constrain to mid-year LA estimates Methodology

6. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 6 Geography Data zones –Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics –Built up from 2001 Census output areas –500 – 1,000 household residents –6,505 in Scotland –Fit local authority boundaries

7. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 7 SAPE Summary Statistics

8. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 8 Quality Assurance

9. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 9 SAPE Quality Assurance Consultation with users – Local authorities, health boards and others – PAMS committee, SAPE working group Review of methodology – Cohort-component vs. Ratio change Comparison with administrative data

10. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 10 SAPE vs. Administrative Data Results

11. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 11 Comparisons done for... Children aged 5-14 (2001-2004) –Child Benefit Database (DWP, HMRC) –School Population (2003–2004 only) School Census (SE) Estimated independent school pupils (GROS) Adults aged 65+ (2001-2004) –Super Older Persons Database (DWP)

12. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 12 Scotland, 2004

13. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 13 Summary Statistics Age 5-14Age 65+ SAPECBDSPSAPESOPD No. of data zones6505 Minimum population30130 Maximum population471375475493500 Mean population93.692.693.3127.1 5th percentile4241 4340 Lower quartile71 8485 Median919091120 Upper quartile114113 162160 95th percentile152150152236235 Standard deviation33.933.734.559.159.6

14. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 14 SAPE (5-14) vs. Child Benefit Database counts, All data zones 2004

15. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 15 SAPE (65+) vs. Older persons database counts, All data zones 2004

16. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 16 Data Zones, 2004

17. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 17 Data zone population differences for children aged 5-14, Aberdeenshire 2004

18. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 18 Population estimates for children aged 5-14 in data zones S01000354 and S01000481 SAPE pop'nSAPE 5-14CBD 5-14SP 5-14 S01000354200164698102n/a 2002810118126n/a 2003875148181178 2004957142181182 S0100048120017849889n/a 2002874127150n/a 2003961149165189 20041093175206214 Population growth SAPE rate of growth slower than child benefit Possibly due to timing

19. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 19 Data zone population differences for children aged 5-14, South Lanarkshire 2004

20. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 20 Population estimates for children aged 5-14 in data zones S01005804 and S01006034 SAPE pop'nSAPE 5-14CBD 5-14SP 5-14 S0100580420016316758n/a 20026536472n/a 20038259296100 20041255164108177 S010060342001737139136n/a 2002710131130n/a 2003735122134146 20041113192135198 Population growth in 2004 Not reflected in child benefit database

21. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 21 Data zone population differences for children aged 5-14, Angus 2004

22. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 22 SAPE pop'nSAPE 5-14CBD 5-14SP 5-14 S0100057620016549269n/a 20026418664n/a 20036308056 2004624775355 Population estimates for children aged 5-14 in data zone S01000576 Stable population Discrepancy in 2001 carried forward to subsequent years

23. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 23 Data zone population differences for children aged 5-14, Perth & Kinross 2004 Highlighted data zones have boarding schools

24. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 24 Data zone population differences for adults aged 65+, Glasgow 2004

25. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 25 Population estimates for adults aged 65+ in data zones S01003199 and S01003223 Adjacent data zones with stable populations Possibly residents of communal establishment allocated to wrong data zone SAPE pop'nSAPE 65+SOPD 65+ S01003199200192587135 200296695106 200390583119 200495390170 S010032232001982165105 2002999171154 20031021190131 2004100419580

26. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 26 Data zone population differences for adults aged 65+, Renfrewshire 2004 Highlighted data zones have nursing homes

27. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 27 Areas with discrepancies Rapidly growing/declining populations High number of independent school pupils Student areas Nursing homes, hospitals

28. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 28 Other sources of discrepancy Timing of counts Starting from different point in 2001 CE residents allocated to wrong data zone Unknown discrepancies Administrative data

29. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 29 Conclusions

30. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 30 Overall picture Discrepancies mostly small No apparent systematic errors Most discrepancies in known or expected ‘problem areas’ But there are unexplained discrepancies

31. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 31 Thank you Questions?