1. Overview CARBOOCEAN EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007

2. Anthropogenic pCO 2 increase in the atmosphere Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica 17002000 260 340

3. Anthropogenic pCO 2 increase in the atmosphere Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica 17002000 260 340 Mauna Loa CO 2 record, 50th anniversary!!!

4. Previous standard IPCC emission scenarios have been to optimistic with respect to human behaviour: Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 (gloabl carbon project) And the related climate projections did not yet include the positive greeenhouse gas feedbacks. We have to get ready for the next generation of realistic scenarios and include important feedback processes in Earth system models.

5. Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP Guiding sustainable development management CO 2 emmisions Objective 5: Prediction, future assessment Initial conditions Objective 1: Short-term assessment System dynamicsBoundary conditions Objective 3: Assessment of Regional European Contribution Objective 2: Long term assessment Objective 4: Assessment of feedbacks

6. Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks Over-arching activity: Prediction Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Final Workshop Kick-Off Meeting Month Phase: 019375560 Understanding Nowcast and Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment Description

7. Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic Hovmüller plots of  pCO 2 (μatm) (defined as the atmosphere minus sea surface): Schuster & Watson, JGR, 2007 1990s high 2000s lower

8. Evolution of oceanic and atmospheric CO 2 in the subpolar gyre: From Corbiere et al (2007), Tellus + new data 2004-2006 Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic

9. Air-sea CO 2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean! obs. atm. CO 2 + ocean impulse response uptake constant 1967 forcing daily NCEP forcing From: LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !

10. Potential alterations in biological cycling of carbon with circulation and pCO 2 change: 350 μatm (green) 700 μatm (grey) 1050 μ atm (red) Apparent decrease of dis-solved inorganic C with pCO 2 Apparent increase of organically bound C with pCO 2 Apparent increase of nutrient utilisiation efficiency with pCO 2 Mesocosm facilities at Espegrend, Bergen Mesocosm experiments at differing atmospheric pCO 2 : ”Captering natural ecosystem communities in plastic bags and watching their behavior for changes in forcing under controlled conditions” Riebesell et al., nature, 2007

11. “Nowcast” and prediction: Are current trends temporary? How to sustain observations? Are necessary processes well enough represented? How trustworthy are prognostic models? What guardrails can we give to policy makers and society in general?

12. Reducing uncertainties in marine uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 : Can we in fact reduce these uncertainties? Or are we only “more certain about the uncertainties”? EGU General Assembly Vienna, Austria, March 2008: Session BG3.1 (co-listed under Biogeosciences, Ocean Sciences, and Climate): “Reducing uncertainties in the quantification of the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon (CARBOOCEAN)” (Conveners: C. Heinze, D. Bakker, D. Wallace) What service can we now and in near future give to society? Time is pressing!

13. OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

14. IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

15. IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION: DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):

16. IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION: DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical): DATA SYNTHESIS: 2007 InfoWorld 100 Award to Alfred Wegener Institute & Center for Marine Environmental Sciences MARUM