1. Smelting og ferskvann svekker ikke nødvendigvis Atlanterhavsstrømmen J.EVEN.Ø. NILSEN, NANSENSENTERET & BJERKNESSENTERET, TOR ELDEVIK, DOROTEA IOVINO, ANDERS OLSSON, ANNE BRITT SANDØ, HELGE DRANGE, MIRJAM GLESSMER, KJETIL VÅGE, ERIK BEHRENS. NGF14 OSLO 18.09.2014 Three papers on the way towards NORTH

2. Background and traditional concepts 1 The dense water formation in the Nordic Seas and Arctic is an important part of the global conveyor belt Fresh water may limit dense-water formation

3. Background and traditional concepts 2 The Nordic Seas limb of the conveyor belt is the Greenland (and Iceland) Sea Gyre

4. Background and traditional concepts 3 Freshwater from the Arctic to the Nordic Seas can (and will) slow down the conveyor there

5. Outline of my talk 1.Sources for change in the deep overflows Eldevik et al., Nature Geoscience, 2009 2.Sources for freshwater changes in the Nordic Seas Glessmer et al., Nature Geoscience, 2014 3.A consistent framework for the Arctic–Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Eldevik and Nilsen, Journal of Climate, 2013 4.A project to test it all (NORTH) Starting next week. Three papers on the way towards NORTH

6. Observed sources and variability of Nordic Seas Overflow TOR ELDEVIK, JAN EVEN Ø. NILSEN, D. IOVINO, K.A. OLSSON, A.B. SANDØ, AND H. DRANGE NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2009

7. The hydrography of the AW-in-OW-out loop Nilsen et al. (2008) Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) @ 200 m

8. TemperatureSalinity The observed hydrography 1950-2005 No clear correlation with Greenland Sea (wo/w lag) – in contrast to what models generally show The NISE dataset (Nilsen et al.,2008). Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009)

9. NAW  1 yr  RAW  2 yr  DS 0.49; 0.46 0.47; 0.42 Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Anomalies travel the loop AW-in-OW-out

10. 0.60; 0.50 A “new” overturning loop NAW  1 yr  NNAW  1 yr  FSC Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Anomalies travel the loop AW-in-OW-out

11. 0.60; 0.500.49; 0.46 0.47; 0.42 X Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Anomalies travel the loop AW-in-OW-out

12. ›Anomalies are carried with the Nordic Seas’ loop of Atlantic-derived waters Predictability: Atlantic inflow #1 candidate For the Faroe Shetland Channel a local Norwegian Basin overturning loop is suggested ›Overflow variability is not associated with deep convective mixing/Greenland Sea as opposed to the traditional understanding and climate model diagnoses S Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Findings – based on the observational record

13. The fresh water What about the freshwater changes in these oceans? First, where do they come from …

14. Atlantic origin of observed and modelled freshwater anomalies in the Nordic Seas MIRJAM GLESSMER, TOR ELDEVIK, KJETIL VÅGE, J.EVEN Ø. NILSEN & ERIK BEHRENS NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2014

15. Background Glessmer et al. (Nature geo. 2014) Between 1965 and 1990, the waters of the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean freshened substantially. The Nordic Seas are key sites in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, with deep water formation inhibited if the surface salinity is too low. The Arctic Ocean also became less saline over this time, as a consequence of increasing runoff. Not clear whether flow from the Arctic was the main source of the Nordic Seas salinity anomaly. See also Curry & Mauritzen (SCI, 2005)

16. Sources of freshwater anomalies to the Nordic Seas 1.Atlantic Ocean 2.Arctic Ocean ice 3.Arctic Ocean liquid Glessmer et al. (Nature geo. 2014)

17. Accumulation of freshwater in the Nordic Seas Glessmer et al. (Nature geo. 2014) Observations Model Integrating inflow salinities and assuming constant volume inflow (8 Sv). From the south:

18. Accumulation of freshwater in the Nordic Seas Using variable volume transports and inflow salinities to calculate freshwater transports. Glessmer et al. (Nature geo. 2014) From the north: Model

19. Conclusions Glessmer et al. (Nature geo. 2014) Freshwater anomalies within the Nordic Seas can mostly be explained by less salt entering with the relatively saline Atlantic inflow Seemingly little contribution from the Arctic. Hydrographic changes in the Nordic Seas are primarily related to changes in the Atlantic Ocean. If the Atlantic inflow and Nordic Seas both freshen similarly, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is relatively insensitive to Nordic Seas freshwater content.

20. Next, the fresh water and cooling in concert So, the freshwater changes in these oceans, what do they do? … And how do they work together with the cooling?

21. The Arctic–Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation TOR ELDEVIK. & J.EVEN Ø. NILSEN, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26, 2013 U ≈ 9 Sv ∆T ≈ 8 ºC ∆S ≈ 1 heat loss ≈ 300 TW freshwater input ≈ 0.15 Sv IBCAO; Jakobsson et al. 2008

22. Arctic–Atlantic THC = two branch system A circulation of heat and salt => two degrees of freedom Courtesy of Bogi Hansen The estuarine circulation & the overturning circulation 3. Compensating inflow 1. Fresh water outflow 2. Mixing Estuarine circulation bottom surface river

23. Our system: The Arctic–Atlantic THC constrained at GSR GSR OW PW AW GSR Circulation Salinity Pot. temperature Thermohaline heat loss freshwater Input

24. Our model: Conservation equations at GSR GSR OW PW AW U 1 + U 2 + U 3 = 0 S 1 U 1 +S 2 U 2 +S 3 U 3 = q S T 1 U 1 +T 2 U 2 +T 3 U 3 = q T

25. Our model: Solved for the circulation (i.e., THC) GSR OW PW AW U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 2 = (q S (T 3 -T 1 )-q T (S 3 -S 1 ))  U 3 = (q S (T 1 -T 2 )-q T (S 1 -S 2 )) 

26. Sensitivity to northern heat and FW forcing anomalies GSR OW PW AW U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 1 = 0  q T /q S = (T 2 -T 3 )/(S 2 -S 3 ) q S =0, q T >0 => U 1 > 0 qSqS qTqT = COOLING

27. Sensitivity to northern heat and FW forcing anomalies GSR OW PW AW U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 2 = (q S (T 3 -T 1 )-q T (S 3 -S 1 ))  qSqS qTqT

28. Sensitivity to northern heat and FW forcing anomalies GSR OW PW AW U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 2 = (q S (T 3 -T 1 )-q T (S 3 -S 1 ))  U 3 = (q S (T 1 -T 2 )-q T (S 1 -S 2 ))  qSqS qTqT

29. Sensitivity to northern heat and FW forcing anomalies GSR OW PW AW U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 2 = (q S (T 3 -T 1 )-q T (S 3 -S 1 ))  U 3 = (q S (T 1 -T 2 )-q T (S 1 -S 2 )) 

30. GSR +1Sv+1.5 Sv +0.5Sv Jan 1979Jan 2009 GSR Overflow Polar outflow Atlantic inflow Strengthening of the Atlantic Inflow with a blue Arctic? FW: +0.03 Sv [ ref. 1965; Peterson et al 2006 ] weakening of THC COOL: +50 TW, 40 yr of sea ice retreat [ - 0.4 mill km 2 ; 1967–present; Kvingedal 2005 ; +138 W/m 2 ; Årthun et al 2012 ] strengthening of THC FW + COOL strengthening of THC ++ Peterson et al. 2006 0.03 Sv

31. Summary and implications ›Consistent framework to diagnose Arctic– Atlantic THC and -change ›THC is not overflow ›FW increase does not imply weaker THC ›The relative strength of estuarine vs overturning circulation reflects FW input ›Present changes in the Arctic contributes to increased THC ›Observed increasing TH-contrasts implies a more robust THC U 1 + U 2 + U 3 = 0 S 1 U 1 +S 2 U 2 +S 3 U 3 = q S T 1 U 1 +T 2 U 2 +T 3 U 3 = q T

32. NORTH – NORthern constraints on the Atlantic ThermoHaline circulation Scrutinize the thermohaline Knudsen model Develop a northern Stommel ‘double-estuary’ model Laboratory experiments Comparisons with numeric ocean model “Mobile THC laboratory” Tor Eldevik Peter M. Haugan Helene R. Langehaug Jan Even Ø. Nilsen Rune W. Time NFR, 2014–2017

33. Overall summary Hydrographic anomalies are carried to the overflows with the Nordic Seas’ loop of Atlantic-derived waters Overflow variability is not associated with the Greenland Sea Freshwater anomalies within the Nordic Seas mostly explained by less salt entering with the Atlantic inflow Thermohaline circulation (THC) is not overflow FW increase does not imply weaker THC Present changes in the Arctic contributes to increased THC Observed increasing TH-contrasts implies more robust THC

35. FSC temperature  composition 0.60; 0.50 Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Anomalies travel the loop AW-in-OW-out

36. 0.60; 0.500.49; 0.46 0.47; 0.42 X Eldevik et al. (Nature geo. 2009) Anomalies travel the loop AW-in-OW-out

37. Quantifying volume fluxes w.r.t. AW hydrography U 1 = (q S (T 2 -T 3 )-q T (S 2 -S 3 ))  U 2 = (q S (T 3 -T 1 )-q T (S 3 -S 1 ))  U 3 = (q S (T 1 -T 2 )-q T (S 1 -S 2 )) 