1. 1 Theories of Psychology: Evolving Towards Greater Effectiveness or Wandering, Lost in the Jungle, Without a Guide? Steven E. Wallis, Ph.D. Director, Foundation for the Advancement of Social Theory Fellow, Institute for Social Innovation, Fielding Graduate University Adjunct Faculty, Capella University I wish to express my deep appreciation to the Institute of Social Innovation for their support Fielding Graduate University - Summer Session 2012 July 16-20 – Alexandria, VA www.projectfast.org swallis@ProjectFAST.org

2. 2 Generally, we believe that we are advancing the field of psychology because our research and practice is “adding to the storehouse of knowledge.” There are some problems with those assumptions. 1.From an evolutionary perspective, such an increase is merely “additive” and does not represent a true evolutionary advance. 2.The storehouse is overflowing. There is no way to determine which knowledge is best or most useful. 3.No improvement in the practice of psychology has been documented. This raises important questions: Are we truly advancing as a science? Are we more able to serve humanity? We Have A Problem

3. 3 Overview swallis@ProjectFAST.org  Dubin, Stinchcombe, Kaplan, etc.: agree theories are more effective when they are more highly structured (however, they did say how to measure structure).  This study is the first to use Propositional Analysis in a cliometric metatheoretical study in psychology.  Wallis pioneered “Propositional Analysis.”  To quantify structure  Found relationship between structure and effectiveness of theory.  Confirmed untested assumptions of previous scholars.  Structure may include: Complexity (number of concepts), and Robustness (interrelatedness between concepts).  Faust & Meehl: suggest “cliometric metatheory” to link the structure of theory with the success of those theories.

4. 4 Previous Study Shows The Evolution Of Theory in two Measures of Structure More effective theories have concepts that are more co-causally interrelated / interknitted / connected During the Scientific Revolution, theories become more complex BEFORE evolving towards parsimony swallis@ProjectFAST.org

5. 5 Sample: Nine Highly Cited Theories of Motivation from Psychological Review Concepts in each theory Relatedness on Scale of Zero to One Trend Line for Complexity swallis@ProjectFAST.org Robustness remains low: Theory not very useful in practical application Complexity declining – not peaking: No revolutionary change is indicated

6. 6 Insights & Conclusions  Complexity of theories of motivation appear to be declining.  May reflect an inappropriate bias towards parsimony? swallis@ProjectFAST.org  Robustness is not improving by much.  No apparent evolution or revolution.  Generalizing, it seems that the science of psychology is “lost in the jungle” following the wrong guide.  Many arguments against parsimony (notably Meehl).  Empirical study (see above) confirms need for theories of greater complexity.  Future studies: Larger sample size; Include more sub-fields; Include more journals as sources.

7. 7 To Help Psychology Serve Humanity We Must Directly Address Theory FIRST - make theories that are more complex (and so somewhat more effective). THIS, in turn, suggests the need for:  More collaboration between scholars.  Greater collaboration between disciplines.  More scholar-practitioner collaboration.  Journals should encourage more complex theories. THEN - create theories that are more Robust and so are MUCH more effective. swallis@ProjectFAST.org I look forward to collaborating with YOU!