1. Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) 2011b-based future year Emissions and 2020 D-J Basin O&G Emission Inventory University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Ramboll-Environ (Environ) January 12, 2016 IWDW-WAQS Technical Committee Meeting

2. 2 Summary 2011b Future Emissions Sources and Results – IWDW 2011b-2025 Wiki WAQS Basin Inventory Projections Denver-Julesburg Basin 2020 Inventory – Methodology for the IWDW 2011b update – Oil and Gas Activity Growth Factors – Emission Results

3. 3 Emissions Projection Conventions Base Year  Future Year Projections = growth + controls Do not decouple a base and future year inventory pair Natural emissions categories are held constant Anthropogenic emissions categories may be projected Typically no changes to spatial allocation, temporal patterns, or speciation

4. 4 Projection Inventories for Base11b Platform Non-O&G – EPA 2011NEIv2 Platform – 2025 projection year Documentation and NODA available from EPA – Same categories as 2011 base (including O&G) O&G – 2020 projections off of 2011 Phase 2

5. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions CO NOx VOC (no biogenics)

6. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 NH3 SO2 CH4

7. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 NH3 SO2 CH4 (no O&G)

8. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions Methane 90% of the UT Area O&G CH4 is from pneumatic devices and dehydrators 97% of the CA Nonpoint CH4 is from landfills

9. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions SO2 Big reductions from base to future in EGU Point SO2 in several states

10. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions IWDW 2011b-2025 Wiki http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/7112/waqs-2011b-platform-future-year-emissions

11. 11 Colorado – Permitted sources (including all midstream and some well-site sources) from CDPHE APENS database – Survey-based well-site sources forecast from WestJumpAQMS a,c – Note: 2020 D-J Basin emissions forecast was developed from the RAQC 2017 inventory Wyoming – Comprehensive O&G emission provided by WYDEQ Utah – Midstream sources from UTDEQ, EPA – Survey-based well-site sources forecast from WestJumpAQMS a,b,c New Mexico – Midstream sources from NMED, EPA – Survey-based well-site sources forecast from WestJumpAQMS a,c a fracing engine emissions added as described in 2011b memo b Uinta Basin tribal minor source data was used as described in the 2011b memo c No survey-based well-site emissions were available for Raton and Paradox Basins IWDW O&G Emission Inventory Primary Data Sources

12. 12 RAQC 2017 emission inventory – Developed as part of 8-hour Ozone SIP based on input from the top six oil and gas producers – 9-county NAA only (includes all of Weld and Larimer Counties) IWDW D-J Basin Inventory includes 9-County NAA and counties outside of NAA – In 2014, 78% of wells, 92% of gas production, and 97% of condensate production is inside the 9-County NAA 2020 Emissions Forecast Basis – 9-County NAA forecast: RAQC 2017 emission inventory – Outside 9-County NAA area Area sources: Based on 9-County RAQC 2017 emission rates Point sources: No change in emissions from D-J Basin 2011a inventory D-J Basin 2020 Emission Inventory Update Methodology

13. 13 D-J Basin 2020 Emission Inventory Update Activity Forecasts, 9-county NAA Surrogate 2020/2017 Scaling Factor Well Counts1.14 Gas Production1.60 Oil Production1.77 Water Production2.10 Spuds0.88

14. 14 D-J Basin 2020 Emission Inventory Update Activity Forecasts, Outside 9-County NAA Surrogate Non-NAA/NAA Surrogate Ratio Well Counts0.22 Gas Production0.08 Oil Production0.03 Water Production1.37 Spuds0.05

15. 15 D-J Basin 2020 Emission Inventory Update Results

16. 16 D-J Basin 2020 (from 2011b) Emission Inventory Update Results Content slide

17. 17 D-J Basin 2020 (from 2011b) Emission Inventory Update Results Content slide

18. 18 D-J Basin 2020 (from 2011b) Emission Inventory Update Results Inventory Forecast Emissions (tpy) NOxVOCCOSOxPM 9-County NAA IWDW 2020 b 31,729100,52929,93895784 IWDW 2020 a 23,895356,41420,43491520 RAQC 201718,26855,73615,585na Outside 9-County NAA IWDW 2020 b 6,7148,8795,92618144 IWDW 2020 a 6,09227,5144,05916110 Basin-wide Totals IWDW 2020 b 38,443109,40835,864113928 IWDW 2020 a 29,987383,92824,494107631 a 2011a-based b 2011b-based