1. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 1 Carbon Emission Targets and Stabilization Scenarios Contribution to New Activity Discussion Group: M. JONAS 1, C. Le Quéré 2, M.R. Raupach 3, N. Nakicenovic 1 1 International Institute for Systems Analysis, Austria; jonas@iiasa.ac.at 1 International Institute for Systems Analysis, Austria; naki@iiasa.ac.at 2 University of East Anglia, TCCCR, United Kingdom; c.lequere@uea.ac.uk 3 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia; Michael.Raupach@csiro.au Shepherdstown, WV, USA; 28–29 May 2011 Providing a Framework for Moving to a Low C World

2. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 2 1. Contents 2. Orientation 3. Uncertainty (Td + Bu) and risk of exceeding T target 4. Monitor compliance: targets/pledges + sustainability 5. Linking ‘negotiation worlds’ 6. Suggestion for a new activity References

3. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 3 2. Orientation – how ideas developed Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories in an Emissions Constrained World M. JONAS 1, V. KREY 1, F. WAGNER 1, G. MARLAND 2 and Z. NAHORSKI 3 1 International Institute for Systems Analysis, Austria; jonas@iiasa.ac.at 2 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, CDIAC, USA; marlandgh@ornl.gov 3 Systems Research Institute, PAS, Poland; zbigniew.nahorski@ibspan.waw.pl Lviv, Ukraine; 22–24 September 2010

4. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 4 2. Orientation – how ideas developed International Workshops on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: 2004 (Warsaw, PL) 2007 (Laxenburg, AT) 2010 (Lviv, UA) Book (2011) Policy Brief (2011) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/unc_wshops.html

5. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 5 2. Orientation – how ideas developed Canadell et al. (2010) 1, 2, 5 1,2, 4, 6 3 …………........ …....... …..….… ….…..… ……….…

6. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 6 2. Orientation – how ideas developed 1. To put uncertainties that are associated with accounting emissions for compliance purposes into a wider quantitative context  Legacy of the 2 nd Uncertainty WS 2. To bring a long-term emissions-temperature- uncertainty issue (here: 2 o C) to the here and now  to emission targets on the near-term time scale  to emission targets on the national scale Our motivation at the time of the 3 rd Unc WS:

7. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 7 2. Orientation – adjusted for the 11 th GCP SSCM 1. Introduce uncertainty: Bu and Td Ultimately: put costs on uncertainty … (robustness later) Moving to a Low-C World in 2050 – timely issues: 2. Monitor compliance: targets/pledges & sustainability Convey the ‘big picture’ beyond the UNFCCC … 3. Do this for different ‘negotiation worlds’ Emissions per capita (prod now, cons later?) Emissions per GDP ‘Biomass draw’ (LU, emissions, …?) per capita (other norm?) …

8. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 8 3. Uncertainty – emissions-constrained world Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 2)

9. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 9 3. Uncertainty – emissions-constrained world Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 3) 10 42 234 25

10. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 10 3. Uncertainty – emissions-constrained world Probability of exceeding 2 o C: Meinshausen et al. (2009: Tab. 1)

11. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 11 3. Uncertainty – emissions-constrained world GEE: Linear Trajectory 1990–2050 POP’s Pop in 2050: 7.5 – 10.2 10 9 (95% CI) 37.5 31.4 25.2 Cum [1990/50]; exceeding 2 o C: 2.9 [2.5 ; 3.4]: 10-43% 2.9 [1.5 ; 5.3]: ~26% 2.9

12. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 12 GEE: Linear Trajectories 1990–2050 for FF and LU 3. Uncertainty – emissions-constrained world 37.5 25.2 31.5 6.0 1990–2050: FF + LU 1990–2050: FF 1990–2050: LU 2.9 0.0

13. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 13 24.0 23.1 Cum [1990/50]; exceeding 2 o C: 2.9 [2.5 ; 3.4]: 10-43% 2.9 [1.5 ; 5.3]: ~26% 2.9 16.5 1: 16.5 - 15.8 2: 16.5 - 15.3 24.0 23.1 2.9 4. Monitor compliance: targets + pledges

14. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 14 3. Not forgotten: Bu Uncertainty Net GHG Emissions Time Base Year Commitment Year/Period Jonas and Nilsson (2007: Fig. 10); modified Time Base Year Commitment Year/Period Net GHG Emissions Uncertainty matters … it can be priced!

15. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 15 24.0 23.1 2.9 16.5 2005 – 2020: Con: 17% Red; Opt: 17% Red Relative to 1990: Em: 3.9% Red; Per-cap: 30.1% Red 20.6 4. Monitor compliance: targets + pledges 1: 17.2 – 16.5: -10 – -1 €/cap/yr 2: 17.2 – 16.0: -9 – 10 €/cap/yr 1: 17.2 – 16.5: 0 – 5 €/cap/yr 2: 17.2 – 16.0: 0 – 18 €/cap/yr

16. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 16 5. Linking ‘negotiation worlds’ 24.0 26.2 [360ppmv] 2.9 25.8 [410ppmv] 23.0 [410ppmv] Rao et al. (2005: Slide. 6)

17. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 17 5. Linking ‘negotiation worlds’ 2.9 1.8 5.9 Cum [1990/50]; exceeding 2 o C: 2.9 [2.5 ; 3.4]: 10-43% 2.9 [1.5 ; 5.3]: ~26% global

18. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 18 Make a difference between LU: IPCC WG I (2007: Tab. 7.1) Atm. Inc. + FF – Ocean Uptake = Net Terr. Uptake (in Gt C yr -1 ) 4. Not forgotten: Monitor sustainability … and LULUCF: Afforestation, reforestation, deforestation Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, revegetation

19. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 19 4. Not forgotten: Monitor sustainability LULUCF vs LU production vs LU consumption:

20. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 20 6. Suggestion of a new activity on a Monitoring Framework for Moving to a Low Carbon World which can be defined either narrowly or broadly:

21. M. Jonas 28 May 2011 – 21 References