1. GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public Health & Primary Care, Trinity College Dublin AUDGPI, 27 th February 2009

2. Aims of the workshop: Estimate numbers of GPs needed to 2021 To identify interventions that will address workforce issues

3. Agenda What do we know? What do we forecast? How might we deal with the issues?

4. Sources of information

5. Age profile of GPs

6. Buttimer Report (2006), recommendation 47: "the HSE should implement the policy previously adopted by the Department of Health and Children to increase the annual intake of GP Trainees from the current 88 to 150 by 2008." Training places

7. Approximately 10% of trained GPs do not practice as GPs – that represents an investment of ~ €2.3m lost each year Intention to retire early: –13% intend to retire before 60 –43% intend to retire before 65 Attrition

8. Agenda What do we know? What do we forecast? How might we deal with the issues?

9. No change in patient behaviour – that is, total demand will be in proportion to the age-sex distribution of the population Demography of trainees to remain stable Sessions and retirement age of GPs to remain stable Assumptions

10. GP numbers – demand

11. GP numbers – fixed intake/120 per annum

12. GP numbers – reduced drop-out to 5%

13. GP numbers – increase intake to 150 annually

14. GP numbers – increased intake + reduced drop-out

15. Trainee contribution to sessions

16. Ratio of male:female GPs

17. Impact of M:F ratio on sessions

18. Agenda What do we know? What do we forecast? How might we deal with the issues?

19. Options for additional training places

20. Increase role substitution - nurses Clinical pharmacy - bigger role Recognition of prior hospital experience Recruitment from EU & Non EU countries Anything else?... Other options