1. Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area Thomas M. Kollars, Jr., PhD Entomological Sciences Program, CHPPM

2. Lyme Disease Risk Model 1. Study conducted June 2001 through April 2002 2. Sites – 10 areas, 3 habitats –Wooded – Ecotone – Field 3. Environmental Variables –Elevation (min, max, mean) –Habitat Type –Tree Density –Canopy Cover –Shrub –Herbaceous –Monocot –Fern

3. Regression Analysis of adult I. scapularis and Habitat Variables

4. Based upon shrub density as correlated with adult Ixodes scapularis using regression model When mean of 200 sample points are used/10m intersect R sqr. =0.87 F (1, 18)=120 P<0.001

5. Lyme Disease Risk Assessment Edgewood Area from adult Black-legged Ticks >1 Tick >.5 and < 1 Tick <.5 Tick

6. Accuracy of Lyme Disease Risk Model based on shrub density Model tested in March/April 2002 34 sites 2m 2 dragged 1= 25 shrubs

7. Mpb Matapex silt loam 2%-5% slope, mean 0.57 Roa Romney and Elkton soils, cratered, mean 0.32 Ud Udorthents, loamy, 0 to 10 % Slopes, mean 0.12 BeBBeltville silt loam, 2 to 5 % slopes, mean 0.23 MUMattapex-Udorthents-Urban, 0 to 2 % slope, mean 0.00 BeABeltville silt loam, 0 to 2 % slopes, mean 1.00 OtOthello silt loam, mean 0.0 Comparison of adult I. scapularis among soil types using ANOVA and LSD (where > 6 samples were taken)

8. Risk assessment of adult I. scapularis based on soil type at Edgewood area (APG) (p<0.05) 1 tick per 4m 2 1 tick per 9m 2 1 tick per 17m 2

9. Risk Assessment Map of Aberdeen Proving Ground based upon extrapolated adult Black-legged Tick and Soil Classification 1 tick per 4m 2 1 tick per 9m 2 1 tick per 17m 2

10. West Nile Risk Assessment 10 study areas, 3 habitats each 2001 June 0330 –0730 identify bird species July through October - Landing counts 0600-0730 Model using Sugeno and Takagi Fuzzy Reasoning

11. West Nile Virus Risk Assessment

12. Mosquito Feeding and Flight Behavior

13. West Nile Virus Potential At Edgewood based upon Sugeno and Takagi Fuzzy Reasoning Bird Risk =  (fuzzy (wnv antibody x flock)) = BR Mosquito Risk =  (fuzzy (ornithophilic x homophilic)) = MR  1 = BR 1 (BR O )  MR 1 (MR O ) min {High (BR O ), High (MR O )} = 0.75  2 = BR 2 (BR O )  MR 2 (MR O ) = min {Moderate (BR O ), Moderate (MR O )} = 0.5 High WNVP  1 = High (BR O ) + High (MR O ) = 1.60 + 2.05 = 3.65 Moderate WNVP  2 = Moderate (BR O ) + Moderate (MR O ) = 1.40 + 1.37 = 2.77 Control Measures Should Be Implemented When WNVP =  0 =  1  1 +  2  2 /  1 +  2 = 4.12 / 1.25 = 3.3

14. De-fuzzified WNV Risk at each Site

15. IPM Mosquito Control Continuous Surveillance Periodic Surveillance West Nile Risk Assessment Edgewood Area Using Fuzzy Logic Model

16. Continuing Surveillance Tick-borne Disease surveillance –Continue to refine adult black-legged tick prediction –Identify variables associated with immature tick populations –Identify variables associated with other tick species –Test infection rates of ticks by PCR –Expand and test model at other installations Arbo-virus / West Nile Virus Surveillance –Continue to identify bird and mosquito species –Test infection rates in mosquitoes by PCR –Expand surveillance to other installations