1. Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Reserach (SCAR) studying ©: C. Cheng, P. Convey/BAS, J. Gutt, AWI/Marum, F. Hinz, H. Link, NASA, J. Turner as of January 2014, partially updated January 2016, provided by Julian Gutt

2. © J. Gutt The Antarctic is changing, parts of it are changing rapidly: climate change & direct human impact Rapid environmental change provides a globally significant opportunity to understand ecosystem functioning. Research demands unique but not isolated approaches. Antarctic ecosystems are unique but not isolated. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

3. © J. Gutt To answer thiese questions we have to: examine biological PROCESSES, define their TOLERANCE limits and determine RESISTANCE and RESILIENCE to change. How close to the cliff are we? Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? What happens before we reach the cliff? What does the cliff look like? What happens behind the cliff?

4. Thresholds: when environmental changes cause rapid ecological changes (similar to 'tipping point') Resilience: self-repairing capacity of an ecosystem Adaptation: adjustment of an organism to a changing or stabe environment. Modern biomolecular studies analyse the rates at which genetic information is translated to metabolically relevant substances ("omics") and, thus, allow conclusions on the adaptation of organisms. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? Resistance: ability of an ecosystem to resist perturbations and disturbances without being significantly changed © J. Gutt

5. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? The scientific core of AnT-ERA are the three themes in the centre with a cascadal flow of information from one level to the other, and interacting with a broader scientific community.

6. © Gutt et al. Theme 1: Physiological limits, biomolecular processes, and thresholds Somero 2012. Ann Rev Mar Sci Blue mussel, example from temperate intertidal (Califormia) Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? Antarctic icefish: P. macropterus © J. Gutt

7. Theme 1: Physiological limits, biomolecular processes, and thresholds Loss of genetic variability (adaptation) diminish capacity to respond to environmental change. Loss of hemoglobin and anti-freeze proteins are "classical" examples. Which genetic information is involved in mitigating environmental insults and is responsible for species’ resilience and response to change. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

8. © Gutt et al. Theme 2: Population processes © P. Convey, BAS; South Georgia Introduced plants reproduce due to climate-induced invasion of pollinators. Ecosystem functioning changes where predators invade © BAS; South Georgia © J. Gutt, Peter I. Island Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

9. Theme 2: Population processes "Drivers" shape populations through species traits, e.g., growth, feeding, reproduction, migration, recruitment. Results only available for a very limited no. of spp. Synergistic effects and non-linear relationships can lead to developments in different directions. Microevolution & invasive species. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

10. -carbon storage, -maintenance of biocomplexity, -production and regeneration -response to climate change -identification of drivers Theme 3: Ecosystem functioning & services experiments models field work Simulation runs not shown here due to capacity limits, but can be provided on request (julian.gutt@awi.de) Model performance: M. Potthoff, AWI Examples of simulations of benthic dynamics, e.g. disturbance by and recolonisation after iceberg impact (left) and SO deep-sea dynamics (right).

11. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? -carbon storage, -maintenance of biocomplexity, -production and regeneration -response to climate change -identification of drivers Theme 3: Ecosystem functioning & services experiments models field work Examples of simulations of benthic dynamics, e.g. disturbance by and recolonisation after iceberg impact (left) and SO deep-sea dynamics (right). Model performance: M. Potthoff, AWI

12. Ecosystem functions that are sensitive to climate-induced changes, and critical to the maintenance of ecosystem services: - carbon storage, - maintenance of biocomplexity, - nutrient regeneration, - biomass production. Theme 3: Ecosystem functioning & services Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

13. © J. Gutt scientific (results and) reviews contributions to other initiatives, e.g., annual updates of the Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report capacity building (APECS & emerging national programmes) outreach Communication - Dissemination - Coordination Deliverables Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

14. Additional: IASC ANTOS APECS SOOS IWC ANTABIF SC-ATAS (SCAR) LGP ANTOS GACS other nat. & internat. surveys AntEco ICED biodiversity patterns system evolution, governance, mitigation CCAMLR living ressources ACCE AnT-ERA adaptation SOOS biological processes: thresholds & resilience under climate change genes, populations, pelagic, circumpolar climate, fisheries, biogeochemistry ecosystems AntClim 21 physical, biological, chemical parameters predictions: atmosphere, cryosphere, ocean EGBAMM Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? Relationships to other scientific initiatives © J. Gutt

15. Why now? New tools Globally significant (Rapid) change expected to continue Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

16. © J. Gutt Tools & Implementation in situ research (e.g. new key sites, new technology, experiments) laboratory approaches („-omics“, physiology) in silico analyses (process modelling, advanced data mining) Mini-grants Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

17. © J. Gutt Scientific steering committee: L. Peck, C. Verde, B. Adams, I. Hogg, D. Wall, A. Takahashi, V. Cummings, I.-Y. Ahn, C. Smith, E. Isla, I. Schloss, J. Xavier, S. Ott, J. Gutt (chief officier) AntClim 21 liaison:T. Bracegirdle ICED liaison:E. Murphy IASC liaison:M. Kędra AntEco liaison:D. Cowan APECS representatives:C. Suckling & T. McIntyre EASIZ ex officio:G. di Prisco Three preparatory meetings: Castiglionchello, May 2010; Delmenhorst, Oct 2011; Modena, Jan 2012 Draft of the proposal distributed for discussion and contributions to LS SSG & "SCAR community" plus approx. 100 external experts. Three official reviews (rating 1-10):average 8.3, science: 9.0 Approved by SCAR delegates:July 2012 (Portland OSC) Official start:July 2013 (Barcelona, Biology Symp.) Re-evaluation:2016/17 Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

18. Achievements (since 2013) Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? Scientific output peer-reviewed papers special volumes edited by AnT-ERA SC members official reports Capacity building AnT-ERA workshop Molecular and Genetic Advances, Napoli 2014 AnT-ERA workshop Interactions between Biological and Environmental Processes, Barcelona 2015 Contributions to many workshops, e.g. APECS, ANTOS, 1st SCAR Horizon Scan. Dissemination of scientific information Web-site ( ∼ 52 000 clicks) & mailing list (>550 members) Major contributions to SCAR conferences and symposia Updates of the ACCE report to ATCM Contributions to the Antarctic Environments Portal

19. Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? Research projects under the leadership of or with major contributions from AnT-ERA SC members Polarstern 82 and 96 (Isla) James Clark Ross 15004 (Xavier) Cape Adare Expedition (Cummings) TEAM-Fish (di Prisco) Support of early career scientists through travel mini-grants supervision/teaching chairing and orgganising APECS workshops Achievements (since 2013)

20. Program Planning Group: Delmenhorst-workshop, Oct 2011, missing: L. Peck, V. Cummings Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?