1. SSG-Life Sciences: Proposed Scientific Research Programs 2013-2018

2. Motivation The current SCAR Life Sciences Programme (EBA) will end in 2013 July 2009: First discussion at the SCAR X Biology Symposium May 2010: Workshop resulting in 2 new programme proposals: 25 participants, 12 countries

3. New Programme Premises Biodiversity dictates how ecosystems function and underpins the life-support system of our planet Antarctic ecosystems are under stress: –Climate change (T, precipitation, sea ice, pH) –Human impact (invasive species, exploitation) –Extreme events (ice shelf collapse)

4. Antarctic is biologically unique Community complexity How it will respond to environmental change

5. Antarctic informs a wider ecological debate about stability and change in ecosystems

6. Two Key Questions Now What is the STATE of the Antarctic ecosystem? What are the biological PROCESSES that define the Antarctic ecosystem tolerance limits and determine its resistance and resilience to change?

7. STATE of the Antarctic Ecosystem (AntEco) In response, we propose two new Programmes: Antarctic Ecosystem THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE (AntETR)

8. THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE STATE Defining Questions: -What is there? -How did it get there? -Why is it there? -What threatens it? Defining Questions: How close to the cliff are we? -What happens before we reach the cliff? -What does the cliff look like? -What is the future beyond the cliff?

9. THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE STATE Key Questions: - How has Antarctic biology responded to past change and what does this tell us about the capacity to respond to future change? - How do we explain the origin, current distribution and abundance of biodiversity? - What are the threats and the implications for the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services? Key Questions: - How does genetic variation underlie the life history and physiological adaptation of polar organisms? - How do species traits impact on community interactions and stability, thereby influencing nutrient cycles, energy transfer and productivity? Will invasive species have catastrophic impacts? - What are the consequences of a changing environment for ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services?

10. THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE STATE Addressing the questions: - Census biodiversity with sustained observing platforms - Understand species radiation and extinctions -Apply new molecular approaches, remote sensing and other technological innovations along with simple, repeatable baseline surveys -Model and predict biodiversity- environment interactions, patterns and regionalization Addressing the questions: - Understand organismal physiology, systems biology and the drivers of productivity in the context of stress - Develop an integrative view of the vulnerability of Antarctic biota - Apply new -omics and physiological approaches - Model and predict thresholds and resilience

11. THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE STATE Addressing the questions: - Integrate with geological record, glaciology and palaeoecology -Increase resolution of climate- environmental models - Include special habitats (e.g. subglacial, seamounts, vents) - Identify special characteristics such as uniqueness, endemism and refugia Addressing the questions: - Develop and maintain long term environmental data to identify tipping points - Integrate functional process data with existing data bases

12. Why Now? Physical and biological measurements of the Earths system now confirm that the Antarctic is outside the range of natural variability Now is the time to assess the STATE of the ecosystem and the biological PROCESSES that will determine its vulnerability and resilience

13. Stakeholders Contribute to: ATS parties and CEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Inter-governmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Links to: SCAR Programmes (ACE, AGCS, SALE, EBA and their successors) Other Antarctic initiatives: ACCE, CCAMLR, COML, ANTABIF, SOOS

14. Deliverables High impact synthesis papers Interdisciplinary interactions Contributions to IPCC Contributions to ACCE New databases Capacity building (APECS) Outreach New Expert Group on Impacts of Humans and Invasive Species on Antarctic Ecosystems

15. THRESHOLDS and RESILIENCE STATE Unique deliverables: - new Terrestrial CAML including ICEMATE -Genetic and barcoding metadatabase -GIS products (visualising bioregionalisation) -Recommendations to the CEPs 5- year plan (e.g. prediction of distribution and biodiversity changes, ship-borne tourism, MPAs, ASPAs) Unique deliverables: -New, process-oriented parameters to ANTABIF

16. Acknowledgements Professor Guido Di Prisco Italy Dr Cinzia Verde Italy Professor Piero Luporini Italy* Professor Roberto Bargagli Italy Dr Stefano Schiaparelli Italy Professor Pete Convey UK Professor Andy Clarke UK Dr Katrin Linse UK Dr Dominic Hodgson UK Dr Antonio Quesada Spain Dr Julian Gutt Germany Professor Angelika Brandt Germany Dr Marc Lebouvier France Professor Wim Vyverman Belgium Dr Brent Sinclair Canada Dr Martin Riddle Australia Dr Clive Howard-Williams New Zealand Dr Lucia Campos Brazil Dr Elie Poulin Chile Professor Diana Wall USA Dr Renuka Badhe SCAR Dr Yves Frenot CEP and COMNAP Dr Kathy Conlan SSG-LS Dr Lou Newman APECS Ms Shulamit Gordon EBA Secretary