1. Tatiana Alexeeva, Sergey Frolov (including Nansen sledge trip to the North Pole) Assessment of sea ice cover parameters in the Arctic Basin within the area of FRAM drift in 1893-1896 (including Nansen sledge trip to the North Pole) 08 March 2006 FRAM laboratory

2. The main tasks of the work: 1.Assessment of interannual and seasonal variability of the sea ice cover parameters for the high-latitude area of Fram expedition in 1893-1896. 2.Comparative analysis of the total ice concentration, based on visual shipborne observations and satellite information 3. Simulation of possible variety of drift track in present time from the first point of the Fram drift.

3. Research area

4. Assessment of interannual and seasonal variability of the sea ice cover parameters for the high- latitude area of Fram expedition in 1893-1896 1

5. Visual shipborne data Eastern sector Western sector

6. Ice characteristics 1.Total ice concentration 2.Ice thickness 3.Ice age (stage of ice development) 4.Hummocks and ridges concentration 5.Stage of ice melting 6.Ice pressure intensity 7.Leads, fractures and cracks

7. Distribution of the total ice concentration summer (Western sector) summer (Eastern sector) 9-10, 10 tenths: July 36% August 24% September 30% <7 tenths: July 10% August 20% September 24% 9-10, 10 tenths: August 28% September 12% <7 tenths: August 22% September 31%

8. Distribution of the hummocks and ridges concentration winter (Western sector) summer (Western sector) summer (Eastern sector) >2 units: July 54% August 60.5% September 65% >2 units: August 58%

9. Distribution of thicknesses of the level ice summer (Western sector) summer (Eastern sector) July, 120-200 cm – 58% August, 140-260 cm – 61% September, 180-300 cm – 62% August, 120-240 cm – 61% September, 180-260 cm – 60%

10. Intensity of the ice pressure summer (Western sector) summer (Eastern sector)

11. Comparative analysis of the total ice concentration, based on visual shipborne observations and satellite information 2

12. 2004 2005

14. FRAM drift simulation 3

15. Historical trajectory of the FRAM drift and hypothetic track of the drift in present time September 1893 – July 1896 September 2003 – December 2005

16. 1.The general ice drift starting in September 2003 coincides well with the historical FRAM drift. 2.Historical FRAM drift lasted 1037 days. It is 25% longer than its hypothetical 2003- 2005 drift (from the initial position until the ice edge in the Fram Strait) 3.Lengths: 1893-1896 - 2750 km 2003-2005 - 2789 km 1037 days – FRAM 2750 km 827 days – 2003-2005 2789 km 25 September

17. 4. The closest distance to the North Pole was reached by FRAM in November 1895 (85.92 N). Our estimations gives 86.15 N in May, 2005

18. 5. Drift velocities in the first 14 months closely match each to other. Next 12 months - 4.2 km/day in 2005; 2.2 in 1895. The most fast drift in 2005 was found in February-May (4.4- 5.4) and in September- November (5.0-9.9). The cyclones from the North Atlantic moved southerly were responsible of the quite stable and fast ice drift in the south-western direction.

19. Results 1.We specified peculiarities of the sea ice cover distribution in the Arctic Basin, used all available visual data from high-latitudinal expeditions in 1977-2004. 2.Comparative analysis of visual and satellite data showed a high difference in total concentration of ice, situated in margin areas of ice massive and relatively good coincidence in the areas, covered by close ice. 3.Ice drift simulation of the FRAM movement has shown the similar pattern of the ice drift compared to the 19th century in spite of the modern changes in the Arctic.

20. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!