2. v To learn how coincidence and probability judgements influence perceptions of anomalous experience.

3. When two unrelated events correspond. There is no obvious relationship between the two But… a belief forms, creating a cognitive bias, that one causes the other.

4. Coincidences can lead to superstitious beliefs- Bjorn Borg would not shave when he had started a winning streak in a tennis tournament. He had won once when he hadn't shaved and these 2 phenomena were linked in his mind. This is called the psychology of contiguity.

5. The Research: Coincidence Zusne & Jones (1989): Ever though about someone 5 mins before you learn of their death? Spooky? Not really. In a country the size of USA, 3000 people would experience this by chance alone. So… what seems to be a paranormal coincidence can be explained by chance.

6. The Research: Coincidence Falk (1982; 1989): Extraordinary coincidences are singled out when they occur and given a significant status. This suggests a bias in cognitive processing. Peter Kay - Connie's Funeral - YouTube Furthermore, unlikely coincidences are considered more significant when they happen to us- egocentric bias.

7. However…. The flipside: Is there even such a thing as coincidence? Chopra (2003): All events can be related to unseen or prior causes/associations. This view is becoming accepted by scientists.

8. Something else to think about: Calculations of coincidences depend on memories- track must be kept of previous occurrences etc. Memory: Subject to error False memories? Biased? Wishful thinking? Suggestion?

9. Many people misjudge the probability of unrelated events occurring and think it’s paranormal. E.g. Thinking about a person and then they ring you Part of a dream coming true.

10. Probability Judgements: The Research Langer & Roth (1975): Early success at a task (E.g. picking lotto numbers) enhanced an illusion of control. Ps believe skill was involved and are biased in success recall- contributes to a belief in ESP.

11. Paulus (1988): Believers more likely to consider dreams as predictive- based on a dream event and future occurrence. Shows poor estimation of probabilities leads to paranormal beliefs. Probability Judgements: The Research

12. However…. Although many studies find a difference in probability estimation between believers and non-believers, not all do. Suggests that this area not fully understood. Could be because methodology is flawed

13. However… Research doesn’t identify where cognitive factors come from. Innate or learned? Banziger (1983): Ps who were sceptics on parapsychology course became more sceptical in their thinking. Therefore, cognitive styles are altered by experience, leading to a change in probability judgements.