1. SEB-studies in Germany Thomas Schuhmacher, DWD

2. Content  Current stage of proceeding of DWD SEB-study on the value of meteorological information for the energy revolution  valuation of forest fire warning index in Germany SEB Workshop – 06/2015 2

3. DWD SEB-study Basic information Topic:the value of meteorological products and services for the energy revolution Special tasks:research on the value chain comparison of products (DWD and private providers) Structure:Topic 1: formulation of a conecpt note Topic 2: realization of the study Length: 12 -15 month 3 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

4. DWD SEB-study Current stage of proceeding  Contract for realisation of the study is awarded to a German company named adelphi research GmbH (www.adelphi.de)  adelphi is a think tank for policy analysis and strategy consulting  adelphi offers solutions and services regarding global environment and development challenges for policy, business, and civil society communities.  kick-off meeting: July 13 4 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

5. Basic information on forest fires in Germany  average number of forest fires per year:1160  average area burned per year:740 ha  reasons for forest fires22 % fire raising 24 % negligence 9 % other 4 % natural 41 % unknown Value of forest fire danger index 5 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

6. Basic information on forest fire danger index  from March to October forest fire danger forecasts (4 days) for Germany  index from 1 (=very little danger) to 5 (=very high danger) Value of forest fire danger index 6 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

7. Socioeconomic benefits of forest fire danger index Value of forest fire danger index 7 SEB Workshop – 06/2015 benefits customers actions

8. damage caused by forest fires in Germany = value of the loss of wood + reforestation costs (9.000 €/ha) + extinguishing costs (~ 3.000 €/ha) (+ loss of (bio-)diversity) (+ risk of death) Value of forest fire danger index 8 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

9. Damage caused by forest fires in Germany (2009-2013) Value of forest fire danger index 9 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

10. Application: Value of warning system in Bavaria Value of forest fire danger index 10 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

11. Method 1: natural experiment  estimation of damage with and without forest fire warning system (=benefit)  damage with warning system (2011): 1.200.000 €  estimation that damage without warning system depends on additional forest burned without control flights (2011): Value of forest fire danger index 11 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

12. Method 1: natural experiment  costs (2011): Bavarian forest authorities (+ control flights): 117.000 € German Meteorological Office: ~ 3.000 € total costs: ~ 120.000 € Value of forest fire danger index 12 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

13. Method 2: cost-loss approach  costs of control flights in Bavaria = 290 €/flight  control flights with an forest fire danger index 4 or 5  additional damage without control flights: 0,4 hectares (~10.550 €)  benefits of control flights in 2011 for Bavaria ~ 50.000 € Value of forest fire danger index 13 SEB Workshop – 06/2015 Control flights/forest fires in 2011:Expenses (€):

14. Contact 14 SEB Workshop – 06/2015 Diplom-Volkswirt Thomas Schuhmacher Deutscher Wetterdienst Regionale Messnetzgruppe München Helene-Weber-Allee 21 80637 München mail: thomas.schuhmacher@dwd.de fon: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9240 fax: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9292