1. Prioritising rainwater management strategies An Notenbaert March 2013

2. Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin… Funded by CPWF - in collaboration with IWMI, OARI, ARARI, ERHA

3. Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin… Multi-stage process Diagnosis Alternative options Characterisation of the options Characterisation of the options Targeting / out-scaling Targeting / out-scaling (ex-ante) Impact assessment (ex-ante) Impact assessment

4. A multitude of challenges Food insecurity High poverty levels Declining soil fertility Low and variable yields Land degradation Water logging ….

5. Characterisation of the rainwater management practices (RMPs) Many different practices aimed at addressing one/several of these challenges Suitable in different contexts Bio-physical, socio-economic and institutional conditions that influence their suitability, adoption and success. RMP database

6. “Suitability maps” -Matching conditions favoring the successful implementation of an option to a spatially referenced database: - Delineation of geographical areas where this specific strategy is likely to have a positive impact.  transforming the previously identified characteristics for a technology into variables for which spatial data exist or can be collected  GIS overlays

7. “Suitability maps”

8. Adoption of RMPs

9. Variable at farm level (farm household survey) OrchardSWCIrrigation from the riverVariable at woreda level Landholding size -0.3633014 (0.002) -0.32609 (0) 0.8432849 (0.001) Average landholding size* Landholding size square 0.0098738 (0.469) 0.025805 (0.031) -0.1226992 (0.006) average plot size 2.875819 (0) -1.460356 (0.01) Average plot size* number of plots 0.077025 (0) 0.0933675 (0.001) Land fragmentation* Household size/landholding size 0.0124864 (0.018) Population density* female headed HH (binary) -0.9771629 (0.001) Proportion of female headed household* Has off-farm income (binary) 0.324617 (0.027) Proportion of households not solely dependent on agriculture* Has hired labor (binary) 0.0038905 (0) Proportion on household who hired labor* Access to advise from the extension service (binary) 0.0038905 (0) 0.390598 (0) Proportion of household with access to extension service* access to credit (binary) 0.3168265 (0.008) Proportion of households with access to credit services* time to market -0.108154 (0.01) Travel time** time to market sq 0.0017995 (0.041) distance to market 0.723262 (0.001) Distance to town with more 10 000 inhabitant ** distance to market squared -0.0015395 (0.023) Constant 0.5559211 (0.036) 0.088009 (0.586) -4.648007 (0) Observations683724814 R-squared0.10730.0960.1111 Conditionslope>0erosion>0at least one flat plot p-value in bracket *taken from the Ethiopian Rural Economic Atlas (census data) ** other geographical layer (see data description in table 2)

10. Feasibility maps Suitability x adoption = feasibility

11. Rainwater management strategies Rainwater management practices to be combined into Rainwater Management Strategies at landscape scale  Overall aim: sustainably increase the system’s productivity  Trade-offs / synergies  At different spatial and temporal scale

12. Blue Nile strategies On the basis of the experiences from the GIZ/SLM program, we identified a number of “best-bet” practices; currently being promoted Zone\Land use Main objective (examples) CroplandGrasslandDegraded land Uplands Increase infiltration (Agro-forestry, orchards and multipurpose trees) Increase the quantity and quality of fodder for livestock (Over-sowing, limiting animal movements) Rehabilitate degraded land (Forestry, gully rehabilitation) Midlands Control erosion, maintain soil moisture (Soil and water conservation, Conservation agriculture) LowlandsMore efficient use of surface or shallow groundwater (Wells, river diversion)

13. Blue Nile strategies Strategy quantification (C) Suitability / feasibility map practice I Suitability / feasibility map practice II Suitability / feasibility map practice III Rainwater management strategy map (D) Landscape delineation layer (A) Targets practice I Zonal statistics (B) Targets practice II Targets practice III Nile Tool  per watershed: “most likely to be adopted” strategy

14. Impact Assessment -For different stakeholders -At different spatial and temporal scales (e.g. downstream effects) -In terms of different metrics: yield increases, economic returns, food security and income, environmental sustainability, social and cultural acceptability.  This is where the Basin wide SWAT modeling comes in

15. Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin… Multi-stage process Diagnosis Alternative options Characterisation of the options Characterisation of the options Targeting / out-scaling Targeting / out-scaling (ex-ante) Impact assessment (ex-ante) Impact assessment