1. Langen, 24-26 September 2003 COSMO-LEPS objective verification Chiara Marsigli, Francesco Boccanera, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy

2. COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF

3. COSMO-LEPS INTEGRATION DOMAIN LOKAL MODELL 10 KM HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION

4. COSMO-LEPS Lokal Model scenarios Probability Maps  prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm  prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C  prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C  prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s  prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water Probability Maps  prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm  prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C  prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C  prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s  prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: Precipitation Mean Sea level pressure 700 hPa Geopotential 850 hPa Temperature Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: Precipitation Mean Sea level pressure 700 hPa Geopotential 850 hPa Temperature Transfer to Cosmo Partners and other interested Member States

5. Verification domain and stations

6. November 2002 – January 2003 Northern Italy Bilinear interpolation 24h total precipitation

7. > 20mm/24h > 10mm/24h > 1mm/24h

8. > 50mm/24h > 30mm/24h

9. > 50mm/24h

10. COSMO-LEPS EPS SE +24h

11. COSMO-LEPS EPS SE +96h

13. PROXY RAIN LOKAL MODELL - 10 KM FC +12h - +36h

14. PROXY RAIN 15/11 12UTC

15. PROXY RAIN 16/11 12UTC

16. November 2002 Northern Italy Nearest point 24h total precipitation

17. > 20mm/24h > 10mm/24h > 1mm/24h

18. > 50mm/24h > 30mm/24h

19. Weighting procedure It is possible to decide (in real-time) if it is better to weight or not to weight? Dependence from ensemble spread? Flow dependence?

20. Concluding remarks COSMO-LEPS is always more skillful than the 5RM EPS, sometimes also than SE, but more statistics is needed for high thresholds Weighting both COSMO-LEPS members and ECMWF RMs causes a worsening of the scores Verification against proxy-rain gives better results for higher thresholds Verification will be soon extended to other COSMO countries (new data-set)

21. Fine