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Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa.

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Presentation on theme: "Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa."— Presentation transcript:

1 Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa

2 Slide 2 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI Extremely Fantastic Intuition Extreme Forecast Index EFI is a measure of the difference between the ENS distribution and a model climate (M-climate) distribution.

3 Slide 3 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI … … Ordering CDFPDF Probability of not exceeding Threshold Density per threshold Interval (normalised) model climate eps forecast parameter value

4 Slide 4 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Represented by pink lines below More weight to extremes of M-climate EFI = 78% M-climate EPS EFI takes no direct account of any EPS members beyond the M- climate extremes -1 ≤ EFI ≤ % ≤ EFI ≤ 100% p

5 Slide 5 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF What can we say about CDFs of successive ENS runs? M-climate Successive ENS runs rank value Lateral variations in CDF position between successive runs are due to the model/flow uncertainty A steeper CDF implies higher confidence.

6 Slide 6 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+9

7 Slide 7 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9 D+10

8 Slide 8 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9D+10

9 Slide 9 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10 mm >20 mm

10 Slide 10 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+8

11 Slide 11 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

12 Slide 12 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

13 Slide 13 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

14 Slide 14 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+8

15 Slide 15 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7D+8

16 Slide 16 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+7

17 Slide 17 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

18 Slide 18 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+6

19 Slide 19 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+6

20 Slide 20 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+7

21 Slide 21 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

22 Slide 22 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+5

23 Slide 23 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+5

24 Slide 24 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+6

25 Slide 25 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

26 Slide 26 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+4

27 Slide 27 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+4

28 Slide 28 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+5

29 Slide 29 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

30 Slide 30 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

31 Slide 31 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+3

32 Slide 32 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+3

33 Slide 33 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENSD+4D+3

34 Slide 34 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

35 Slide 35 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

36 Slide 36 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+2

37 Slide 37 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+3D+2

38 Slide 38 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

39 Slide 39 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

40 Slide 40 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+1

41 Slide 41 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+2 D+1

42 Slide 42 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

43 Slide 43 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

44 Slide 44 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+0

45 Slide 45 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

46 Slide 46 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI snow h72-96h 48-72h24-48h

47 Slide 47 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF M-Climate Precipitation - Q98 Temperature – Q2 Snow – Q98

48 Slide 48 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Verification

49 Slide 49 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observed Precipitation 25.07/06UTC-26.07/06UTC Observed Precipitation 26.07/06UTC-27.07/06UTC Durban

50 Slide 50 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

51 Slide 51 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

52 Slide 52 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

53 Slide 53 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

54 Slide 54 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

55 Slide 55 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow

56 Slide 56 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow, Forecast

57 Slide 57 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

58 Slide 58 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

59 Slide 59 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Hogsback, 1543m above sea level 0°C M-climate, snow


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