1. European population grids, from Models to Official Statistics Ekkehard Petri (Janusz Dygaszewicz)

2. History of grid data in Europe Grid data as additional territorial output system for statistics in Europe since ~2000 (Tandem projects) National population grids in Scandinavia since the 1970ies First modelled European population grid since +2001 (Gallego et al.) First proposal for a European grid using hybrid sources (Nordic Grid club in 2005)

3. European Forum for Geography and Statistics Expert group on spatial statistics Mainly GIS experts from NSIs and Mapping Authorities, but increasingly users of spatial statistics and spatial information Reference group for the GEOSTAT projects Annual conferences on spatial statistics, strong UN-GGIM focus. Next conference from 10-12 Nov in Vienna, in 2016 in Paris

4. GEOSTAT 1 – mapping the 2011 Census on a 1km² population grid Three stages 1A methodology + 2006 prototype (GEOSTAT 2006) 1B refinement use cases + 2011 prototype (GEOSTAT 2011 V1) 1C final grid (GEOSTAT 2011 V2)

5. Goal of GEOSTAT 1 Produce a 1km² population grid of the 2011 census from as many national datasets as possible (aggregated or hybrid data sources) Develop a methodology for population grids from statistical and spatial data sources Develop quality assessment parameters in addition to traditional statistical (ESMS) and spatial (INSPIRE) metadata Address the issue of data confidentiality Discuss business models of grid data Show the application of grid data in spatial analysis Present a vision for spatial reference framework for statistics

6. Results of GEOSTAT 1 29 of 32 EU + EFTA countries provided national data on residential population (aggregated, mix of aggregation and partial modelling using hybrid data sources)  => Innovate spatial statistics on a voluntary is possible Standard methodology for the aggregation of point based or very small area statistics into 1km² grids developed  => GIS and other technical issues solved

7. Results 1 st version of quality documentation template  Use cases: Accessibility to health services Definition of a new sample frame 

8. Results GEOSTAT 2011 data free of charge for non- commercial use  but some countries have reservations to make all grid data freely available (source of income) Confidentiality remains a huge problem no harmonised methodology among countries, difficult trade-off between additional breakdowns and data protection -> GEOSTAT 2011 only residential population 

9. Use of population grids Support EU Cohesion policy (Accessibility studies e.g. to public services, green areas) Population based typologies (cities) Concentration analysis (clustering of foreign born citizens) Support the Sustainable Development Goals e.g. accessibility, definition of cities, exposure to disasters

10. Recommendations for future censuses 1km² as cell size is a good compromise between usefulness for regional to sub-national analysis, and confidentiality issues and business interests of NSOs. Population grids on core topics should be produced more frequently (e.g. residential population annually). Cross-tabulations create massive confidentiality issues and should be avoided. Information should come from point based data from administrative sources or full enumerations as modelling has quality issues in particular for time series analysis.

11. Plans for the next Census More data should come from geocoded administrative records More breakdowns in addition to total residential population Three age classes, sex, information on education, employment, citizenship and change of residence all with very limited breakdowns and no cross- tabulations Solving the confidentiality challenge Experiments with day-and-night-time population

12. GEOSTAT 2 project as the spatial reference framework for statistics and censuses Recommendations on a system of geocoded address and dwelling points for official statistics Geocoded sample frame Duration from 2015-2016

13. Further information Website of the European Forum for Geography and Statistics EFGS www.efgs.infowww.efgs.info Website of the GEOSTAT 2 project http://www.efgs.info/geostat/2 http://www.efgs.info/geostat/2 Download the GEOSTAT 2011 population grid http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata /reference-data/population-distribution- demography http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata /reference-data/population-distribution- demography Report on case study on accessibility to health services http://www.efgs.info/geostat/1B/frontpage/app endix-11-access-to-emergency-hospitals http://www.efgs.info/geostat/1B/frontpage/app endix-11-access-to-emergency-hospitals