1. Using Simulation and Decision Modeling to Inform Decision Making AHRQ Annual Meeting Sept. 8, 2008

2. This Morning’s Session Can Clinical Trials really answer all relevant questions? Can Clinical Trials really answer all relevant questions? – What if the patient is older/younger/sicker/ better/etc. than in the trials? – What if the technology has changed? – What if management strategy has changed? Can simulation modeling help fill in the gaps? Can simulation modeling help fill in the gaps?

3. From the Modeler’s Side Many decision models in the literature Many decision models in the literature – Single use “one off” models – More global natural history models designed for wide range of questions Can decision models inform decisions? Can decision models inform decisions? – Working with the decision makers to determine Relevant alternatives and inputs Relevant alternatives and inputs Relevant outcomes Relevant outcomes – Case study today of working with the US Preventive Services Task Force to examine Cancer Screening

4. Today’s Agenda Diana Petitti, MD, MPH (briefly) Diana Petitti, MD, MPH (briefly) Professor of Biomedical Informatics, Arizona State University Vice Chair, USPSTF Author of Meta-Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Cost- Effectiveness Analysis Ann Zauber, PhD Ann Zauber, PhD Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, NY Coordinator of CISNET Colorectal Cancer Modeling Groups Shalini Kulasingam, PhD Shalini Kulasingam, PhD University of Minnesota Investigator on the Duke Cervical Cancer Model Diana Petitti Diana Petitti

5. Zauber Zauber Kulasingam Kulasingam Petitti Petitti