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Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA.

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Presentation on theme: "Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA."— Presentation transcript:

1 Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Markets Outlook Recovery in slow motion Q3 | Outlook 2010 8/12/10

2 1 Today's Agenda >Economic outlook >Market outlook >Questions and answers

3 2 Why is the Capital Markets Outlook important? Diversification helps you spread risk throughout your portfolio, so investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Diversification is not a guarantee of overall portfolio profit and does not protect against loss. >Explains the relationship between economies and investing >Puts current market conditions in perspective >Helps you become a better informed investor >Provides context for the importance of a diversified investment portfolio

4 3 No one can predict the future >Markets may react immediately to good and bad news >Stock and bond market returns vary from year to year >Different investment styles take turns producing the strongest results

5 4 A market barometer The Capital Markets Committee: >Reviews recent economic and market activity >Discusses potential short- and long-term trends >Provides a market outlook based on likely scenarios

6 5 Market outlook review What’s happening now? >Macro: U.S. and international economies >Equities: U.S. and international stocks >Fixed income: U.S. and international bond markets

7 6 U.S. and international economies Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved.

8 7 Major economic indicators >Inflation >Interest rates >Employment >Economic growth

9 8 Inflation Consumer price index (CPI) is a gauge of inflation that seeks to measure the change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food and transportation. The CPI is published monthly. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of June 2010. Figures shown are actual and not adjusted for seasonality. Figures shown are based on a 12-month % rate of change in both core and headline inflation. Inflation continues to trend down Jun-2010 Dec-1973

10 9 The long and short of interest rates Source: Bloomberg, as of 06/30/10. Long-term interest rates fell sharply

11 10 Job market is slow to improve Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Three-month moving average. Shaded bars represent recession. Change in non-farm payroll employment (thousands)

12 11 Growth hits a soft patch Source: U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of July 30, 2010. Gross domestic product, quarterly % change (annualized)

13 12 International economic outlook International developed and emerging economies: >In Europe and the U.K., growth was positive, but a sovereign debt crisis clouds the outlook for growth going forward. >Japan reported modest growth, but structural problems cloud the long-term outlook. >In emerging markets, strong growth continues as monetary tightening takes a pause. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets.

14 13 Equities outlook Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved.

15 14 Improving outlook for U.S. stocks Favor stocks over bonds >A slight overweight in stocks vs. bonds >Favor U.S. vs. foreign developed markets (overweight emerging markets) >Target higher quality companies with growing franchises There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is more pronounced for longer term securities. Investments in small- and mid-capitalization companies involve greater risks and volatility than investments in larger, more established companies.

16 15 Major U.S. stock market indexes Average annual total returns through June 30, 2010 Q2 20101-year return5-year return10-year return Large company stocks S&P 500 Index -11.43%14.43%-0.79%-1.59% Mid-size company stocks S&P MidCap 400 Index -9.59%24.93%2.21%5.30% Small company stocks Russell 2000 Index -9.92%21.48%0.37%3.00% Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 6/30/10. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each index shown above is unmanaged and is not available for direct investment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500 Index), an index of primarily large-cap stocks, is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. The S&P MidCap 400 Index is a proxy for the mid cap segment of the U.S. domestic equity market. Companies included within the S&P MidCap 400 Index have a market cap in the range of US$ 280 million to US$ 7.75 billion, with the average market capitalization residing near $2.3 billion. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of 2,000 small companies. Investments in small- and mid-capitalization companies often involve greater risks and potential volatility than investments in larger, more established companies.

17 16 International stock market lost ground >Stock markets around the world lost ground in the second quarter. >In Europe, the U.K. and Japan, losses were generally greater than they were in the United States. >Emerging markets performed better than developed economies. Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) Index, an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index, is compiled from a composite of securities markets of 26 emerging market countries. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE Index (MSCI EAFE Index), an unmanaged index, is compiled from a composite of securities markets of Europe, Australia and the Far East. The index is widely recognized by investors in foreign markets as the measurement index for portfolios of non-North American securities. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets due to the dramatic pace of economic, social and political change.

18 17 Risks for stocks >Corporate sales growth proves fleeting and unsustainable >Company guidance disappoints >Political uncertainty/government regulation >Increased taxes >Consumer spending retrenches

19 18 Fixed-income outlook Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved.

20 19 U.S. Fixed Income Emphasis on corporate fixed-income sectors >High-quality bonds outperformed stocks in the second quarter, as interest rates declined and investors shunned risk. >U.S. Treasuries was the best-performing sector within fixed income. >High-quality corporate, municipal and inflation-protected bonds all registered modest gains. >Opportunities remain in high-yield bonds. >Favor investment-grade corporate bonds. There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.

21 20 Market outlook recap >Economy: The global economy continues to expand at a modest pace, with some uncertainties about future growth. >Stocks: We remain positive in our outlook for stocks, especially in the U.S. market, where we see opportunity for shares of high-quality companies. >Bonds: We favor investment-grade and higher-quality, high-yield bonds. Outside the United States, we favor emerging market debt.

22 21 Action steps >Be an informed investor >Review life circumstances and goals >Schedule a personal financial planning meeting

23 22 The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by CMIA and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described in this brochure may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Since economic and market conditions change frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described here will continue or that the forecasts are accurate.

24 23 Questions and answers Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved.

25 24 Thank you Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc. (formerly known as RiverSource Fund Distributors, Inc.), member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (formerly known as RiverSource Investments, LLC). © 2010 Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved.


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