1. New NWS Western Region Local Climate Products 1 Marina Timofeyeva, 2 Andrea Bair and 3 David Unger 1 UCAR/NWS/NOAA 2 WR HQ/NWS/NOAA 3 CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Contributors:Bob Livezey, Shripad Deo, Heather Hauser, Holly Hartmann, Eugene Petrescu, Michael Staudenmaier

2. OUTLINE Need for Local Climate Products Challenges in Local Climate Product Development Methods and Data Product Design Operational Organization Next Steps

3. Need For Local Climate Products CPC products and Local Climate

4. Need For Local Climate Products Localized Climate Impacts are of public interest Figures courtesy of Klaus Wolter, CDC

5. Challenges in Local Climate Product Development

6. Methods and Data Modified CPC Translation of CD Seasonal Temperature POE Forecasted Temperature (°F) POF (%) Observed T

7. Methods and Data Modification included: versus –Regression coefficients estimate: use of straight regression coefficients versus ones inflated by correlation; versus –Forecasting methodology: station mean and variance are estimated from CD forecasted mean and variance and use of normal distribution for POE ordinates versus use of inflated correlation coefficients and CD POE temperature ordinates; –Local Product design is customer friendlier

8. Methods and Data Data: NCDC provided an experimental “homogenized and serially complete data” set with: – Monthly/daily value internal consistency check –Bias adjusted to a midnight to midnight observation schedule –Spatial QC –Artificial change point detected and adjusted –Estimated missing or discarded data

9. Methods and Data r i – Station/CD Correlation ρ (CD fcst/obs corr) Spread of Station Forecast Climatological Spread Confident Prediction

10. Methods and Data

11. CPC Composite Analysis extended by Risk Analysis and CPC forecasting method 1941-2000 1941,1958,1966, 1973,1983,1987, 1988,1992,1995, 1998 Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)

12. Methods and Data Extension includes Risk Analysis identifying statistically significant signal

13. Methods and Data Making forecast using Composite Analysis FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4: Nino3.4 Term WarmNeutralCold Above 67%33%11% Near 13%53%28% Below 20%14%61% Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005): NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 2004 PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVE JJA 0.50.0760.3710.552 ………………………………………… DJF 6.50.0530.3880.559 JFM 7.50.0800.3930.527

14. Product Design Translated POE: Customer “wants a number”

15. Product Design Verification with cross-validation CRPSS

16. Product Design Verification with cross-validation Probability Observed Frequency

17. Product Design CD verification indicates space & time differences in forecast performance

18. Product Design Composite Based: Customer “wants a number” Probability, % Temperature, °F Bordered Probability bars are statistically significant

19. Product Design Seligman Childs Wupatki Betatakin Petrified Forest McNary Prescott Flagstaff Payson Winslow Analysis of WFO Flagstaff Composites for Tmean JFM

20. Product Design Verification Tmean, JAS Precip, JFM

21. Product Design Verification

22. Operational Organization 87 site in NWS WR area will be introduced in 01/05 CPC/CSD WR HQ WR WFO Methodology; Software; CD Forecast Station Forecast; Verification Prognostic Discussion; Product Delivery; Customer Feedback

23. Next Steps Product Documentation Experimental Phase Customer Feedback Product Adjustment Product Introduction in NWS operations