1. Extrapolated fresh water and extrapolated 32.5 PSU T are shown in red and blue (extrapolation done using all available instruments for period) Green and yellow are noaa buoys, cyan and magenta are jetta max and min diurnal T

2. Temperature of upwelled water is not subject to changes in local conditions. Downwelled surface temperature does change with local conditions Downwelled water is more closely related to open ocean surface water than to river water (actually, it is probably closer to open ocean 10 m water, but there is no source for that)

3. When steady conditions produce continuous upwelling or downwelling, then the ocean temperature remains steady (actual temperature shown colored by length of continuous periods within 1 C range)

4. Periods of steady temperature occur at a wide range of temperatures. This reflects changes in surface water conditions, not in degree of upwelling

5. Timeseries of normalized temperature colored by persistence of stable conditions Shows that steady upwelling and steady downwelling produce stable conditions

6. Temperature normalized to offshore temperature shows stability in downwelling (>0.8) and upwelling (<0.4) periods

7. Normalizing by estuary fresh water temperature doesn’t make much sense Conceptually, but produces similar results to using offshore temperature (for 2004 buoys available are N and S of Columbia, years with Columbia River buoy T data might show better behavior with buoy data)

8. Estuary ocean temperature normalized to estuary fresh temperature Colored by length of periods of stable temeprature

9. Using extrapolated fresh water temperature to normalize extrapolated 32.5 psu temperature produces similar results to other normalizations. Cyan shown extrapolation based on all available Stations, black shows extrapolation based only on jetta. Index based on fresh water becomes meaningless as fresh water temperature drops below upwelled water temperature.

10. Critical test: normalized T (based on max buoy temperature) plotted against cumulative wind (sum of consecutive daily wind values that have the same sign within an arbitrary tolerance (4.5 m/s in this image).

11. Scatter plot shows improvement over raw T

12. Normalized estuary ocean end member temperature is the upwelling index. Persistence at consistent upwelling index values is the demonstration of the validity of the index Evaluation during winter is confounded by normalization (fresh water and ocean surface temperatures both go below upwelled temperature) Use of predicted salinity would correct this, but need an offshore salinity-temperature relationship to use as an intercept for estuary s-t line Could use fixed predicted T value cutoff at some high salinity (e.g. 33.5 S) Predicted temperature at high S requires valid salinity data Predicted T at high S is difficult to normalize (definitely can’t use estuary fresh water temperature as surface ocean water temperature)