1. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Sustainable Energy Foundation of Sustainable Living Santa Cruz, CA Thursday 2006 July 27 7:00pm Ron Swenson

2. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Swenson’s Law

3. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: Global Warming EROEI Scalability Timing

4. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Why leave out Economics? Economics is an instrument of policy. It’s the last step in the process: –First figure out what works… –Then create incentives.

5. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Atmospheric CO 2

6. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse Feb-Mar 2002 In about 35 days Larger than Rhode Island Totally baffled scientists 1 down, 4 to go

7. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Sea Level +6M New York City Long Beach Atlantic City Wildwood Montauk New Haven

8. www.ecotopia.com/workshops (380) (850) The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earth’s atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC. 14 7 21 1955205521052005  850 ppm  500 ppm Ramp = Delay Flat = Act Now 1.9 (320) (470) (530) (750) (500) (850) Business As Usual 2155 2205 GtC/yr Historical emissions Stabilization triangle Based on Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, August 13, 2004, Science

9. www.ecotopia.com/workshops 20552005 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 1955 0 Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9  2105 14 GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven “wedges” Wedges O

10. www.ecotopia.com/workshops What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

11. www.ecotopia.com/workshops U.S. Wedges Source: Daniel Lashof, NRDC

12. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: Global Warming EROEI Scalability Timing

13. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI Energy Returned On Energy Invested ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

14. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI for PV EPBT: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10  30 ~ electric

15. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI for Thin Film PV EPBT: 6 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 40  120 ~electric

16. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI for Wind EPBT: 3 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 80  240 ~ electric

17. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas Low EROEI → Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3?

18. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI = 4  12 ~ electric EROEI for Nuclear Plus … Terrorism Waste guarded for 10,000+ years Depletion → low grade ores → Greenhouse gases … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

19. www.ecotopia.com/workshops EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = -½

20. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Corn Ethanol

21. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Freeway at Capacity

22. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Vehicles Removed

23. www.ecotopia.com/workshops PRT Passengers

24. www.ecotopia.com/workshops PRT System

25. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Solar PRT

26. www.ecotopia.com/workshops INDUSTRY 35% TRANSPORTATION 27% RESIDENTIAL 21% COMMERCIAL 17%

27. www.ecotopia.com/workshops

28. INDUSTRY 25% TRANSPORTATION 27% BUILDINGS 48%

29. www.ecotopia.com/workshops

31. design & innovation passive solar heating passive cooling daylighting siting building shape, color and orientation fenestration location, size and shape shading natural ventilation materials / properties green roofs

32. www.ecotopia.com/workshops PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(?) PV increases at 50%/yr ?

33. www.ecotopia.com/workshops Wake Up!!!