1. NCEP Update NAEDEX-22 Michelle Mainelli NCEP Central Operations 9 December 2009

2. 2 Topics FY09 NCEP Activities –Power6 CCS Upgrade –New Observations and Products –Model Upgrades Planned FY10 NCEP Activities –Observations/Products –Model Upgrades –GRIB2 Transition NCWCP Building Update NCEP NAEDEX Action Items NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

3. FY09 Activities Power6 CCS Upgrade New Observations and Products Model Upgrades 3 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

4. Power6 CCS Upgrade  69.7 Teraflops Linpack #36 Top 500 Nov 2008  156 Power6 32-way Nodes  4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz  19,712 gigabytes memory  320 terabytes of disk space  100 terabyte tape archive Two Identical IBM Power6 Systems – Operational 25 Aug 2009 Due to budget issues we may not see our next upgrade until 2012-2013 time frame. 4 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

5. Infrastructure 5 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

6. NCEP’s Data Usage 6 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22 NCEP receives 1.76 Billion observations per day Assimilated Satellite Data Counts ~ 1.5 Million / cycle

7. NCEP’s Data Usage Assimilated Conventional Data Counts ~ 110,000 / cycle NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

8. New Observations 8 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22 Polar Satellites –ENVISAT - wind/wave & SSHA Chemical data assimilation (MIPAS & SCHIAMACHY) –Jason-2 - wind/wave & SSHA (testing) –METOP-2/A AMSU Microwave Humidity Sounder IASI AVHRR/3 GRAS (evaluation) GOME—2 ASCAT –GPS Radio Occultation (NAM/NDAS) COSMIC data –ATOVS – EARS/RARS Previous problems to assimilate data corrected

9. New Observations 9 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22 Geostationary Satellites –METEOSAT MET-7 & MET-9 operational –MET-9 cloud-track winds (IR/VIS/WV) - testing MET-8 backup

10. New Observations 10 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22 Non-Satellite Observations –Receiving some river flow data –PIREPS, AIREPS, SIGMETS and AIRMETS Including east of 10 deg. –Korean & European AMDAR –Lightning data from UKMO –Wind profiler data

11. WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Satellites 99.9% North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast MOM3 Global Data Assimilation Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ For eca st NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite 11 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

12. Model Upgrade Process NCEP model improvement process includes peer review of changes: –Notification of availability of test data for major model upgrades https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.modelevalinfo NCO WEB Site lists upcoming changes http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Weekly RFC Memo –List of every change to NCO’s IT infrastructure, as well as CCS and dataflow changes http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/jifmemo/ 12 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

13. Model Updates Moratorium on CCS December 2008 - late August 2009 November 2008 – RUC http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin08-77ruc_upgrades.txt http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin08-77ruc_upgrades.txt December 2008 – NAM http://www.weather.gov/om/notification/tin08-79aaa_nam_upgrade.txt http://www.weather.gov/om/notification/tin08-79aaa_nam_upgrade.txt February 2009 – Updates to the Global Analysis System to include changes in the observations used in the analysis http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin08-99aaagfs_upgrade.txt http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin08-99aaagfs_upgrade.txt October 2009 - SREF - New models – hourly output to 39 hours http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-29aaasref_upgrade.txt 13 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

14. Model Updates November 2009 - NAM – Several physics upgrades and Bug Fixes http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-33nam_dgex.txt November 2009 – HWRF Included 3-way coupling framework with POM, HYCOM, WW3 for coupling (POM default) November 2009 – Air Quality Implementation –Update to the CMAQ, providing a daily maximum ozone product November 2009 - Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Several Physics upgrades http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-30aaa_rtofs.txt 14 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

15. Planned FY10 Activities Model Upgrades Observations Products 15 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

16. Planned Model Upgrades December 2009 – GFS - GSI –Analysis upgrade w/ new data types – minor changes to forecast – several new parameters to be available http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-32gfs_changes.txt February 2010 - GEFS - Resolution upgrade T126 to T190 (~ 70 km) –All cycles out to 16 days –Introduce Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) Products to be realigned in files on FTP servers –Changes will impact the products generated for NAEFS http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-34gefs.txt 16 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

17. Planned Model Upgrades Other Model Upgrades for 2010 –RUC - Extending forecasts to 18hrs & include Canada AMDAR –Global Multi-Grid Wave Model upgrade –RTOFS upgrade – Science update: add Jason-2 altimeter data –Combine NCEP & U.S. Navy Wave Ensemble & extend to 10 days –GFS Resolution Increase – from T382 to T574 (~35 km to ~27 km) –Upgrade HWRF System with HYCOM –Upgrade RTSST with AMSR SST & Sea Ice retrievals Future plans –Climate Forecast System upgrade – early FY11 –Hybrid (ensemble-4D-VAR) global data assimilation system in operations by late FY13 17 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

18. Planned Observations Ingest Canadian Radar data AXBT and TDR Data from NOAA P-3 European METNET GPS IPW AMDAR data from France European Radio-Acoustic Sounding System data Wind profilers via (PIBAL) reports METEOSAT –Clear sky radiances –Cloud analysis –Tropospheric humidity –Total Ozone 18 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

19. Planned Products Air Quality products for Alaska and Hawaii WAFS GRIB2 Products –sample files between NWS & UKMO are being exchanged –G2 parms going through WMO – for full operational beginning March 2010 –Goal migrate from G1 to G2 by 2012 GRIB1 => GRIB2 Transition Project 19 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

20. GRIB2 Transition Goal: To create a comprehensive parallel GRIB2 encode/decode capability for users both internal and external to NCEP –Collaborative project between NCO – EMC Scope: –Create GRIB2 product templates –Create a thread-safe version of the NCEP GRIB2 library/application –Port of EMC post codes to allow for conversion directly from binary to GRIB2 –Versions for each GRIB library will be tracked and documented Deliverables: –GRIB2 product templates –Parallel GRIB2 Library –Diagnostic GRIB2 tools and applications –By June 2010: Prototype NEMS post processing code to GRIB2 instead of GRIB1 Implement libraries on CCS (June 2010) 20 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

21. NCEP Compute Farm 30 Blade System created for: –Place to run batch jobs that are too small for OCCS –Allows NCEP Centers to run jobs and not use workstation resources –Possibly used for NSSL WDSS-II Level-II radar data Specs: –Running VMWare –8 cores (processors) per blade –32 GB Ram per blade (960 GB total) –36 TB total Disk Space Currently at NCEP WWB => NCWCP A offsite back-up is being developed in Fairmont, WV at this time 21 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

22. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Revised Construction Schedule http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/news/ncwcp/latest.shtml 22 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

23. NCEP Action Items From NAEDEX-19 E.2.1.2 - NCEP 1/12 Sea Ice, 1/12 & ½ SST –Both 1/12 and 0.5 degree global SST data are available on GTS and on NCEP public data servers. –NCEP has no plans to discontinue the 0.5 degree product and will continue to do so until all users are utilizing the higher resolution products. –Both products are available on the NCEP public data server at: ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/omb/prod/sice{YYYYMMDD} where YYYYMMDD is the current date. –0.5 degree product available on GTS with header OTLA88 KWBI –1/12 degree product available on GTS with header ETWA88 KWBI. 23 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

24. NCEP Action Items From NAEDEX-19 E.4.10 – Ground based GPS from JPL –Funding in the near future does not look possible –The only GPS data NCEP receives operationally and resends out through the TOC is the Integrated Precipitable Water. From NAEDEX-20 N.x – Sea Surface temperature, wind direction/speed, wave height, sea ice analyses and forecast products from UKMO. –NCEP maintains requirement to automate the retrieval of the data files. The web availability will not suffice. 24 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22

25. Questions ? 25 NCEP Update – NAEDEX-22 “From the Sun to the Sea… Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

26. NCEP Overview 26