1. STRENGTHENING OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR Mr. Peter Nicholl, Governor of Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina REALISING BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EUROPEAN POTENTIAL: FROM WAR ECONOMY TO CREDITWORTHINESS AND SUSTAINABILITY International conference on development of Bosnia and Herzegovina CG Meeting on Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo, September 22 and 23, 2004

2. 2 Four currencies were being used. The only currency used everywhere in the country was the DEM. There were 76 registered commercial banks Most were very small None operated over the whole country They were mainly state owned Citizens held very little of their savings in the banks The non-cash payment system was a monopoly of the state- owned payment bureaus In summary, the financial sector was small, fragmented, and played little economic role THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN BIH IN 1997

3. 3 Commenced its operations on 11 August, 1997 A state-level institution Operates under its own Law An independent institution Its strategic direction is set by a Governing Board It has five offices:  Three Main Units – Banja Luka, Mostar and Sarajevo  Two branch offices – Brčko and Pale THE CENTRAL BANK OF BIH (CBBH)

4. 4 The most important function of CBBH The CBBH operates monetary policy through a Currency Board arrangement Choice of a Currency Board:  It Provides a firm nominal anchor in the form of a fixed exchange rate.  It removed discretion in a situation where there was considerable difficulty in establishing institutions and making political decisions.  Works well in some other Eastern European MONETARY POLICY

5. 5 The fixed exchange rate is specified in the CBBH Law Full foreign exchange backing for all the KM liabilities of the Central Bank Full convertibility of the CBBH’s KM liabilities into the anchor currency THE CURRENCY BOARD

6. 6 The fixed exchange rate is 1KM = 0.51129 euro. Initial exchange rate was 1 KM = 1 DEM The KM exchange rate has been unchanged since the CBBH commenced its operations in 1997 Transition from the DEM to the euro as the anchor currency went smoothly THE FIXED EXCHANGE RATE

7. 7 CBBH FOREIGN RESERVES DATE NET FOREIGN RESERVES MONETARY LIABILITIES FREE RESERVES DEC 1997144,1160,3- 16,2 DEC 1998283,3253,929,4 DEC 1999865,7836,729,0 DEC 20001021,2973,248,0 DEC 20012666,62591,675,0 DEC 20022463,22345,1118,1 DEC 20032.779,62.626,3153,3 JUN 20043.167,73.007,0160,8 (end of period – in KM million)

8. 8 FULL CONVERTIBILITY (in KM billion) The fixed exchange rate is specified in the CBBH Law Full foreign exchange backing for all the KM liabilities of the Central Bank Full convertibility of the CBBH’s KM liabilities into the anchor currency KM ISSUED FROM AUGUST 11, 1997 UNTIL SEPTEMBER 10, 2004 KM ISSUED TO BH BANKS KM PURCHASED FROM BH BANKS NET KM ISSUED 15,90513,0162,889

9. 9 The Currency Board has been a very successful type of monetary policy for BH The KM has been a stable currency against the DEM and the euro since it was introduced. Inflation in BH is low and stable. KM use has risen steadily and the KM is the dominant transactions currency in all parts of the country. SUCCESS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD

10. 10 INFLATION IN BH (Retail price index, Annual % growth) YEAR ENDED FEDERATION OF BH REPUBLIKA SRPSKA BH AVERAGE DEC 20004,016,18,0 DEC 20010,32,20,9 DEC 2002- 0,72,40,3 DEC 20030,31,30,6 JUN 2004-0,62,00,2

11. 11 Decision of the BH Presidency that the Currency Board will continue, which was stated in the PRSP, which has been endorsed by all levels of government The Currency Board produced major economic and social benefits It achieved the main objective – the financial stability through a consistent application of monetary policy Country is undergoing through very difficult and important political and economic reforms and still required stability Long term deal – take BH economy closer and into Europe (The exit strategy for BH from Currency Board should be eventual adoption of the euro as in case of some recent members of EU) THE CURRENCY BOARD IN THE FUTURE

12. 12 A rapidly improving banking sector  Return of confidence  Return of depositors  Lending on more reasonable terms  Real competition  High level of foreign investments THE BANKING SECTOR

13. 13 Reform of the payment system Significant increases in a banks’ minimum capital requirements Inter-entity banking Deposit insurance Arrival of foreign banks Privatization of government owned banks CHANGES IN THE BANKING SECTOR

14. 14 CAPITAL STRUCTURE IN BH BANKING SECTOR * (1) In 1999, there were 61 banks operating in BH. * Breakup not available In the end of 2002, 40 banks operated in BH, 8 banks less than in 2001 and 36 less than in 1997. By May 31, 2003, this number has reduced further to 37 Number of banks, given the ownership structure, is tabled below. 31.12.200031.12.200230.06.2004 TOTAL NUMBER OF BANKS554037 OWNERSHIP: PRIVATE BANKS363430 STATE-OWNED BANKS1967 CAPITAL STRUCTURE (%): STATE CAPITAL:471016 DOMESTIC PRIVATE CAPITAL 53* 2419 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL6765

15. 15 BANK LOANS 31.12.20031.12.200131.12.200231.12.200330.06.2004 AmountShareAmountShareAmountShareAmountShareAmountShare TOTAL LOANS 1652100%2101100%3213100%5122100%5318100% PRIVATE COMPANIES 83350%98847%130441%186036%215640% PUBLIC ENTERPRISES 32220%35016%36111%116723%70613% CITIZENS37523%64731%141544%196638%231844% OTHER SECTORS 1227%1166%1334%1293%1383%

16. 16 BANK DEPOSITS 31.12.20031.12.200131.12.200231.12.200330.06.2004 AmountShareAmountShareAmountShareAmountShareAmountShare TOTAL DEPOSITS 2094100%3324100%4158100%4366100%4938100% OUT OF IT: DEPOSITS IN KM 89543%121436%174942%227452%267154% DEPOSITS IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 119957%211063%240958%209248%226646%

17. 17 INTEREST RATES PRIVATE ENTERPRISESHOUSEHOLDS SHORT-TERM LENDING RATES LONG-TERM LENDING RATES DEMAND DEPOSITS RATES TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS RATES DEC 200212,07%10,59%1,44%4,38% DEC 200310,54%9,18%0,96%3,40% JUN 200410,15%8,57%0,84%3,63%

18. 18 BiH received its first formal sovereign credit rating in early 2004: B3 with a positive outlook (Moody’s) National Capital Markets Council formed in 2003 Two stock exchanges established Private investment funds established Registry of transaction accounts established Preparations for putting of entity-based banking agencies under the CBBH umbrella almost completed CBBH started to collect and publish the data on government finances OTHER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS IN LAST TWO YEARS

19. 19 Government securities market will be established soon Leasing Law has to be passed soon Banking supervision will shift under the CBBH in 2005 Money market instruments will be developed Harmonization with EU standards and regulations FUTURE INITIATIVES IN THE BIH FINANCIAL SECTOR