1. ANC 2018 Evidence Base – Progress Report

2. Independent Evaluators Winning bid from consortium: –John Grieve –Andrew Moxey –Peter Cook –Bill Slee Evidence papers and background data at parish level are being prepared for contractors who will synthesise and draw conclusions

3. Projects - Overview

4. Project 1 – Land Abandonment Information for Contractors: Summary Report on Land Abandonment JHI remote sensing report (investigates changes in vegetation density index using satellite data from 1975, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2005 and 2015) Parish level data on livestock, agricultural labour and LFASS area claims

5. Key points from paper 010 Working definition: actual abandonment is farmland no longer used at all and semi/hidden abandonment is land with minimal maintenance significant destocking across Scotland: more prominent in LFA and most prominent on land with a low LFASS payments Employment: large shift away from regular staff to casual staff Since 2007 there has been a 20.5% reduction in LFASS Grazing category A land claimed

6. Project 2 – LFASS Distribution Information for Contractors: LFASS scheme data summarised by parish. Summary paper including sectoral and regional breakdowns and distribution and change maps

7. Key points from paper 008 Analysis compares 2007 and 2013 Funding increased by £6m (~10%) Claimed area fell by around 460k ha Upland areas have lowest per hectare funding rates and saw bigger percentage increases in funding between ‘07 and ‘13 The regions which receive the most per hectare are Orkney, Fife, Dumfries & Galloway and NE Scotland.

8. Project 3 – Pillar 1 Payments Information for contractors: Pillar 1 payments summarised by parish Pillar 1 summary paper including sectoral and regional breakdowns and distribution and change maps Combined P1 & LFASS subsidy analysis using farm accounts survey

9. Project 4 – Sustainable Farming Systems Information for contractors: Summary paper Updated viability analysis commissioned from SRUC Evidence highlighted by Env LINK on environmental sustainability and on management of common grazings

10. Key points from paper 009 (1) Economic Sustainability: Big increase in net wealth across all farm types Income and wealth much lower for LFA farm types, specialist sheep in particular. LFA farm types are almost exclusively dependent on subsidy for income (those with higher subsidies have higher incomes) Non-viability is driven by lower size, the farm being a tenancy (rather than owned), upland based operations, and having high nature value farming status

11. Key points from paper 009 (2) Social Sustainability: LFASS was found to safeguard jobs where it encouraged active land management Environmental Sustainability: Evaluations of LFASS have identified both positive and negative environmental impacts SNH report found the numbers and distribution of wild deer influence the extent to which livestock changes impact natural heritage. Anecdotal evidence and case studies suggest declines in livestock negatively impacted natural heritage.

12. Project 5 – Income Forgone and Additional Costs Number of sources of data on margins (e.g. FMH, QMS, FAS) but based on averages or enterprise types. Link to land quality/ constraint needs to be based on assumption. Commissioned JHI and SRUC to link Farm Accounts data to biophysical data in order to undertake analysis to try and isolate the effect of the constraint on cost and income.

13. Additional Project & Next Steps Commissioned SAC consultants to gather evidence on the costs of remoteness Requested business level data on options for ANC zones so we can analyse payment rates, degressivity and budget distribution for stakeholder event next year.