1. LivingstonTownship Schools

2. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Introduction Enrollment Projections 101 Livingston Twp. Demographics District & School Projections 2

3. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Mandated Spreadsheet Format Long Range Facilities Plan Cohort Survival Methodology or Percent of Population Based on Historic Enrollments & Birth Rates Acceptable Modifications through Certified Demographers Report NJ DOE Enrollment Projections Planning Sciences Statistical Analysis 3

4. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS 220 Live Births were recorded in 1996 and 278 students entered Kindergarten in 2001 CSR = 278/228 = 1.264 339 students in 2 nd Grade in 2003 “survived” from 321 students in 2002 CSR = 339/321 = 1.056 The 1 st to 2 nd Grade 5-Year Average CSR is 1.049 Cohort Survival Method 4

5. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS 223 Kindergarten students are factored by the 1.190 CSR to project 265 students in the 1st Grade of the first year of the projection The 1 st to 2 nd Grade 6-Year Average CSR is 1.049. The 256 students in 1 st Grade are projected to survive as 278 2 nd Graders Cohort Survival Projection 5

6. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Charter Schools Private & Parochial School Status Interdistrict School Choice Program Changes in Curriculum: Early Ed, Special Ed Seasonal Fluctuations Impact of additional housing beyond the historic average Housing Mix : Types and Number of Bedrooms Multipliers for Public School Children by housing type and number of bedrooms Impact of Age Restricted Housing on Existing Housing Re-Sales Modifications to Projections 6

7. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Township and District Location 7

8. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Charter, Private and Parochial Schools PRIVATE SCHOOLS Aquinas Academy Kushner Hebrew Academy Newark Academy 310 720 565 Sinai School Horizon High School The Milton School 50 87 40 CHARTER SCHOOLS - None CHOICE SCHOOLS - None 8

9. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Comparative Population Growth 30,127 29,366 9

10. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Population by Age Group 10

11. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Population Pyramid Male Female Child Bearing Age 11

12. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS District Births 2010 Birth Rates:Nation New Jersey Livingston 13.5 12.6 7.3 12

13. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Residential Resales 5.2% Avg. Annual 7.6% 13

14. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Residential Construction 5-year average = 16 2005 peak = 411 14

15. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Proposed Residential Construction 588 units of multi-family residential construction will impact the Livingston enrollment within 10 years. 15

16. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Students from Residential Construction 125 new students will be generated from the four planned housing projects. 31 students arrive during the initial five-year projection. 94 students arrive during the extended five-year projection. 16

17. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS New Students by Elementary School 17

18. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Returning Special Education Students 18

19. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Demographics Summary 2000-2010 Population growth is minor Growth aligned with County, less than State Live Births Declining, in line with recession Pre-School and Childbearing Age populations all slightly decreasing School Age, Middle Age and Senior populations are increasing Residential Construction significant decrease but…four projects are planned Under 5 Age group decreased by 246 School Age group increased by 895 …so what’s up??? 19

20. Explanations and Implications It’s all about in-migration… The rate of turnover of existing housing with purchases by younger families in their early childbearing years is down. Trends to remain the same? Yes, except for Special Ed and Housing 20

21. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS District-wide Enrollment Projections Historic increase of 181 students per year Projected growth of 148 students, then decline by 149 Extended overall decline of 84 students to new low 5862 Peak 21

22. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Pre-K to Gr 5 Enrollment Projections 13-year decrease of 269 students About 45 students per Grade Level 22

23. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Gr 6-8 Enrollment Projections Overall 9-year increase of 198 students Ultimate decrease of 214 students 23

24. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Gr 9-12 Enrollment Projections Overall 13-year increase of 288 students 24

25. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Burnet Hill ES Enrollment Projections Overall 10-year decrease by 55 students 25

26. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Collins ES Enrollment Projections Slow decrease of 51 students over 7 years 26

27. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Harrison ES Enrollment Projections Slow decrease of 78 students over 10 years 27

28. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Hillside ES Enrollment Projections Slow decrease of 81 students over 11 years 28

29. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Mt. Pleasant ES Enrollment Projections Increase of 54 students over 6 years Decrease of 44 students over 7 years 29

30. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Riker Hill ES Enrollment Projections 7-year valley resulting in 8 student decrease 8-year valley resulting in 14 student decrease 30

31. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Mt. Pleasant MS Enrollment Projections Peak in year 2014 at 490 students 3-year and 4-year decreases, 134 students 31

32. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Heritage MS Enrollment Projections Peak in year 2015 at 975 students 2 nd Peak in 2020, ultimate 115 student decrease 32

33. LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS Comparative Enrollment by Grade Level Organization Elementary enrollment peaked in 2006 Middle School Enrollment peaks in 2015 High School Enrollment peaks in 2019 33

34. Thank You Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill, NJ 08034 Tel 856-755-0174 www.SundanceAssoc.com GSundell@SundanceAssoc.com 34