1. F RANKLIN C OUNTY P UBLIC S CHOOLS Enrollment Projection and Demographic Report 2011-12

2. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Data used in this projection included:  Franklin County live births for the past 10 years  Franklin County population information  K-12 enrollment history at the end of the first school month by grade and by school for the past 10 years 2

3. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  The methodology included:  Analysis of the end of the first school month enrollment by grade and for each school in the district.  Calculate percent of Franklin County’s live births 5 years prior to the current year number that entered kindergarten ( percent of survival )  Calculate percent of students moving the next grade ( percent of survival ) for each school and for the district as a whole. The percent of survival for three trend periods was calculated—3, 5 and 10 years. 3

4. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  The methodology included:  Percent of survival for each trend ( 3, 5 & 10 years ) was applied to the end of the first month 2011-12 enrollment to generate projected district wide end of first month enrollment 10 years into the future.  School specific projections were generated by grade for each school for 2012-13 using data from each trend.  Population projections from the Kentucky State Data Center for school age population groups were used to analyze the trend projection and select the trend most likely to represent the actual enrollment in the future. 4

5. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: 5 Figure 1: Franklin County Kentucky Population – 1980 to 2010 – Projected to 2030

6. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: US Census 1990-2010 6 Age GroupCensus 1990Census 2000Census 2010 Under 52,8142,8992,983 5-199,4069,2599,275 20-296,7576,6726,311 30-6419,89322,97223,834 65+5,2735,8856,882 Total44,14347,68749,285 Under 56.4%6.1% 5-1921.3%19.4%18.8% 20-2915.3%14.0%12.8% 30-6445.1%48.2%48.4% 65+11.9%12.3%14.0% Total100.0% Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY US Census by Age to 1990-2010 Table A Franklin County Population in Age Categories – 1990 – 2010

7. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Projected Population by Age 7 Age Group Projected Pop 2015 Projected Pop 2020 Projected Pop 2025 Projected Pop 2030 0-42,9672,9683,0013,016 5-198,7308,7268,6838,702 20-295,7095,7665,8325,852 30-6422,72621,95421,27420,688 65+7,9269,24110,23910,874 Total48,05848,655 @49,02949,132 @ 0-46.2%6.1% 5-1918.2%17.9%17.7% 20-2911.9% 30-6447.3%45.1%43.4%42.1% 65+16.5%19.0%20.9%22.1% Total100.0% @ Total is not exact same as projected total in Figure 1 due to rounding Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY Projection by Age to 2030 Table B Kentucky Data Center 2011 Projections Franklin County Projected Population in Age Categories – 2015 – 2030

8. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Change 2000 to 2010 by Race 8 TotalChange 2000-2010Ages 0-17Change 2000-2010 Race Category 20002010NumberPercent20002010NumberPercent Total Population 47,68749,2851,5983.4%10,77610,665-111-1.0% White, Not Hispanic 41,68141,026-655-1.6%9,1698,336-833-9.1% AfrAm, Not Hispanic 4,4425,07863614.3%1,018987-31-3.0% AmIndian, Alaska native, Not Hispanic 59822339.0%1612-4-25.0% Asian, Not Hispanic 343692349101.7%74190116156.8% Native Hawaiian, Not Hispanic 97-2-22.2%10-100.0% Other Race, Not Hispanic 627-55-88.7%414549.8% Multiple Race, Not Hispanic 56095939971.3%29156827795.2% Hispanic 5311,374843158.8%166527361217.5% Table C Franklin County Population in Racial & Age Categories

9. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010 9 2000 2010 NumberPercent RELATIONSHIP BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE NumberPercentNumberPercentChange Total Population in Households45,86296.2%47,22495.8%1,3623.0% Total Households19,907100.0%20,662100.0%7553.8% In Family Households12,83964.5%12,88662.4%470.4% With Own children under 185,88129.5%5,43326.3%-448-7.6% Average Household Size2.302.29-0.01-0.4% Average Family Size2.86 0.000.0% Table D Franklin County Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010

10. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Housing Units - 2000 & 2010 10 2000 2010 NumberPercent HOUSING UNITS NumberPercentNumberPercentChange Total Housing Units 21,409100.0%23,164100.0%1,7558.2% Occupied housing units 19,90793.0%20,66289.2%7553.8% Vacant housing units 1,5027.0%2,50210.8%1,00066.6% Owner Occupied 12,90364.8%13,39164.8%4883.8% Renter Occupied 7,00435.2%7,27135.2%2673.8% Table E Franklin County Housing Units - 2000 & 2010

11. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 11 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010NumberPercent Children in Poverty 20001,37713.0% Children in Poverty 20081,90818.0% Median Household Income 2000$40,011 Median Household Income 2008$48,291 Unemployed 20008643.4% Unemployed 20082,2439.0% Table F Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

12. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 12 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010NumberPercent Children receiving SNAP 20001,085 Children receiving SNAP 20092,789 Children receiving WIC 2000716 Children receiving WIC 2009988 Free & Reduced Lunch 99-002,39035.0% Free & Reduced Lunch 09-103,52950.0% Table G Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

13. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 13 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010Number Children enrolled in KDHIP 2000330 Children enrolled in KCHIP 2009473 Children enrolled in Medicaid 20001,969 Children enrolled in Medicaid 20093,559 Child Support Paid 2000$2,807,516 % Child Support Collected 200053.0% Child Support Paid 2010$4,610,257 % Child Support Collected 201057.0% 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent (FMR)2010$698 Hourly Wage needed to afford FMR$13.42 % renters unable to afford FMR45.0% Table H Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010

14. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – 2011-12 - Elementary: 14 Grade BP CL ELVElkhornHearnPM WR Elem Total Elem Projected Prim-K/G 1009231268 572 511 P – 1 808724879 494 500 P – 2 8210069978378 509 529 P – 3 719166877872 465 479 4 577280955359 416 422 5 6694841027573 494 507 Total 4565365602993812894292,9502,948 Projected 443557540309377294428 2,948 Total less Projected 13(21)20(10)4(5)1 2 Bldg. Capacity 575475525500550500475 3,600 % Occupied 79%113%107%60%69%58%90%82% Table I-1 Enrollment by Elementary School – End of First School Month – 2011-12

15. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – 2011-12 – M/S & H/S: 15 Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHSAcademy District Total District Projected K-5 212245 2,950 2,948 6 232188 457 486 7 197263 420 8 3062342 460 445 9 23521111 542 566 10 2551908 457 430 11 175 12 453 449 12 212245 362 367 14 0 0 Total 641696971810336,1016,111 Projected 64969796680249 6,111 Total less Projected (8)(1)58(16) (10) Bldg. Capacity 6758501,050850 7,025 % Occupied 95%82%92%95%87% Table I-2 Enrollment by Middle and High School – End of First School Month – 2011-12

16. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – 2007-08 to 2011-12 – K-12: 16 School 2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12 5-Year Change % Change Bridgeport 433441427426456153.4% Collins Lane 488497544534536397.8% Early Learning 0530544542560305.7% Elkhorn 378355353322299(56)-15.8% Hearn 6053223433683815918.3% Peaks Mill 528309248303289(20)-6.5% Westridge 4133904064274293910.0% All Elementary2,8452,8442,8652,9222,9501063.7% Bondurant MS626644638629641(3)-0.5% Elkhorn MS684709716696 (13)-1.8% All Middle School1,3101,3531,3541,3251,337(16)-1.2% FCHS1,011995979945971(24)-2.4% WWHS751775741781810354.5% All High School1,7621,7701,7201,7261,781110.6% Academy4443604933(10)-23.3% All K-12 5,9616,0105,9996,0226,101911.5% Table M End First School Month K-12 Enrollment by School - 2007-08 to 2011-12

17. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  K-12 Enrollment History – 2000-01 to 2011-12 17 Grade 2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12 P-K/G 430470497469495490470503531488572 P – 1 458404455 463495514477500531494 P – 2 401 481438465455464483503459472509 P – 3 503 436 500438467448456480483443465 4 476444 417 464417452439442454507416 5 491455429 418 479425444439438481494 6 423520463427 414 475439460450425457 7 430410494479421 401 466437463445420 8 446418403499483423 405 456441460 9 534541517526573603547 525 540495542 10 427404436420436476491487 441 507457 11 402418355384377362428426410 392 453 12 351380382325363359340375389372 362 Sp. Ed. 8000040390040 Total 5,7805,7815,7865,7695,8435,9135,9616,0105,9996,0226,101 Change K-12 (31)15(17)74704849(11)2379 FTE Enrolled 5,565.05,546.05,537.55,534.55,595.55,668.05,726.05,758.55,733.55,778.05,815.0 FTE Change (27)(19.0)(8.5)(3.0)61.072.558.032.5(25.0)44.537.0 Table N K-12 Enrollment by Grade - End of First School Month 2001-02 to 2011-12

18. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Enrollment - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends 18 Figure 2. Projected K-12 Enrollment Franklin County Public Schools - 2011-12 to 2021-22

19. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Enrollment Compared to KY Data Center Projections - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends 19 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 3 year 6,1016,1546,1626,1826,1966,2016,2416,2556,2366,2886,299 5 year 6,1016,1796,2066,2446,2876,3056,3666,4036,3966,4676,491 10 year 6,1016,1566,1556,1706,2056,2066,2526,2816,2646,3236,334 Pop 5-19 Prj9,275 8,730 8,726 % Enrl of Prj 3 65.8% 71.0% 71.5% % Enrl of Prj 5 65.8% 72.0% 73.3% % Enrl of Prj 10 65.8% 71.1% 71.8% Table P Comparison of Enrollment Trends to Data Center Age 5-19 Projection

20. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Elem. Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend: 20 Table R-1 Projected K-5 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month - 2012-13 Grade BP CL ELVElkhornHearnPM WR Elem Total Prior Year M1 Prim-K/G 868929669540572 P – 1 1009231368573494 P – 2 769364907772472509 P – 3 809767948175494465 4 698965857671455416 5 577381965359419494 Total 4685336092773652874142,9532,950 Prior Year M1 4565365602993812894292,950 Bldg. Capacity 500575525500550475 3,600 % Occupied 93.6%92.7%116.0%55.4%66.4%60.4%87.2%82.0%

21. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month M/S & H/S Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend: 21 Table R-2 Projected K-12 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month - 2012-13 Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHSAcademy District Total Prior Year M1 K-5 2,9532,950 6 2252600485457 7 2112440455420 8 2351900425460 9 3012312534542 10 27621111488457 11 2061868400453 12 23017212414362 14 0000000 Total 6716941,013800336,1546,101 Prior Year M1 641696971810336,101 Bldg. Capacity 6758501,0508507,025 % Occupied 99.4%81.6%96.5%94.1% 87.6%

22. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Special Needs Enrollment - 2007-08 – 2011-12: 22 The 3.9% decline of all disabled students was in contrast to the 2.3% increase for all students during the period from 2007-08 to 2011-12. Table S Student with Disabilities Child Count for SEEK Calculation 2007-08 to 2011-12 Category 2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12Change% Change Severe 14014213313414664.3% Moderate 471451434398364-107-22.7% Speech 1541641901922257146.1% Total 765757 724735-30-3.9%

23. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 201 1-12 : 23 Table T-1 Elementary Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1 st School Month – 2011-12 Category Bridgeport Collins Lane Early Learning ElkhornHearn Peaks Mill Westridge All Elem FREE LUNCH 2272463091921542011841,513 REDUCED 40334412261740212 TOTAL 2672793532041802182241,725 TOTAL ENROLLED 4565365602993812894292,950 % FREE LUNCH 49.8%45.9%55.2%64.2%40.4%69.6%42.9%51.3%

24. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 2011-12: 24 Table T-2 Middle/High Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1 st School Month – 2011-12 Category Bondurant MSElkhorn MSFCHSWWHS AcademyDistrict FREE LUNCH 262365359257302,786 REDUCED 545161663447 TOTAL 316416420323333,233 TOTAL ENROLLED 641696971810336,101 % FREE LUNCH40.9%52.4%37.0%31.7%90.9%45.7%

25. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Students on Free Lunch - 2006-07 – 2011-12: 25 Figure 4. Percent Franklin County K-12 Students Receiving Free Lunch - 2006-07 to 2011-12

26. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected Enrollment & Capacity - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Yr Trend 26 Table U Projected Enrollment and Student Capacity 3 Year Trend Grade Level 11/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/22 K-5 Enrollment 2,9502,9533,0403,0413,0313,0573,0112,9902,9562,9652,958 Comb. Elem Bldg. Capacity 3,600 # Schools 6666666666 Ave. Enrolled Per School 492507 505510502498493494493 % Occupied 81.9%82.0%84.4%84.5%84.2%84.9%83.6%83.1%82.1%82.4%82.2% 6-8 Enrollment 1,3371,3651,3541,3481,3411,3731,4361,4431,4951,4371,422 Comb. M/S Bldg. Capacity 1,525 # Schools 2222222222 Ave. Enrolled Per School 683677674671687718722748719711 % Occupied 87.7%89.5%88.8%88.4%87.9%90.0%94.2%94.6%98.0%94.2%93.2% 9-12 Enrollment 1,8141,8361,7681,7931,8241,7711,7941,8221,7851,8861,919 H/S 1,900 # Schools 2222222222 Ave. Enrolled Per School 918884897912886897911893943960 % Occupied 95.5%96.6%93.1%94.4%96.0%93.2%94.4%95.9%93.9%99.3%101.0% K-12 Enrollment 6,1016,1546,1626,1826,1966,2016,2416,2556,2366,2886,299 District Bldg Capacity 7,025 Excludes Portable Classrooms % Occupied 86.8%87.6%87.7%88.0%88.2%88.3%88.8%89.0%88.8%89.5%89.7%

27. F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Summary 27 Franklin County Public Schools are expected to experience slow enrollment growth in the next 10 years. If the trend of the past 5 years continues the school district’s number of students with disabilities may decline or at least not increase at a faster rate than overall enrollment. Based on the KY Data Center’s 2011 population projection of the 5-19 age category Franklin County’s percent of all non-white students will increase with a decline in the percent of whites.