1. A new measure of reconviction in Scotland Ian Morton, Justice Analytical Services Justice Statistics User Day March 5 th, 2012

2. Summary Reconviction - what it is and what it isn’t –User requirements –How we obtain data to measure it –Old measure –New measure Benefits of new measure Interactive tables – a demonstration Results Scotland Performs A game – but may be in your own time

3. Reconviction – what it is and what it isn’t Offending versus convictions –E.g. (Police) unrecorded, (COPFS) not enough evidence, (Judiciary) found not guilty Reoffending versus reconvictions –Same reasons as above Inclusions: –E.g. Fines Exclusions –E.g. Most minor driving offences Comparing rates with other countries –Don’t do it! Caveat: (in this presentation) court convictions only

4. User requirements Internal policy –To help inform progress for the “Reducing Reoffending Programme” –5 broad strategies: deterrence, supervision, rehabilitation, reparation and incapacitation CJAs –for strategic planning (plan and target resources effectively). LAs and other stakeholders –more accurate feedback on performance to partners. Ad-hocs –Parliamentary Questions –Freedom of Information Requests Evaluations –To attempt to demonstrate effectiveness of programmes. Research –gaining understanding about the age-crime curve Scotland Performs (more later)

5. How we obtain data to measure it CHS (maintained by the SPSA) –Sentences and Charges –From courts and constitution team SOI (created from the charges) –Convictions Index convictions in a cohort Follow- up reconvictions –Based on main crime May be more than one charge E.g. breach of the peace, and failing to appear

6. Ye olde measure Reconviction rate –Based upon offenders being reconvicted –Yes/no decision –Non-prolific (e.g. violent) versus prolific (e.g. shoplifters) ? –A disposal of a DTTO has the highest reconviction rate (one year rate about 64%) 2 year follow-up –Wait a long while to get results

7. The 21 st Century Reconviction frequency rate –Based upon convictions by an offender, rather than offenders –Based upon a count, rather than yes/no –Can see more of an impact from prolific offenders (e.g. for shoplifting) 1 year follow-up –More up-to-date than 2 year follow-up

8. Benefits of new measure More timely and more sensitive

9. Interactive tables Demonstration of the new tables (Excel spreadsheet)

10. Results Over the past seven years there has been a decline in reconviction frequency rate from 63.9 to 57.9; a reduction of 6 reconvictions for every 100 offenders Most questions (in this order) –Short custodial sentences versus community sentences –Offensive weapons –Sex offenders –Young offenders, and women offenders

11. Scotland Performs Strategic Objective –Safer and Stronger. National Outcome 9 –We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger. National Indicator –Reduce reconviction rates. –The reconviction frequency rate decreased by 1.8 reconvictions per 100 offenders, from 59.7 in the baseline year of 2006-07 to 57.9 in 2008-09. Website (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms/indicato r/reconviction)http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms/indicato r/reconviction

12. To summarise - A game See handout Please try the game out: –It is (supposed to be) fun –It will also remind you about this workshop