1. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist

2. NOAA NWS Pacific Region Pacific Region Headquarters Pacific Tsunami Warning Center CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa) – 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue) WFO Guam Pacific Region Headquarters Pacific Tsunami Warning Center CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa) – 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue) WFO Guam

3. CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (Largest Forecast Office in U.S.) 5 Management Staff (4 Meteorologists) 20 Meteorologists 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians 1 Meteorologist Intern 3 Electronics Technicians 2 Contract Information Technologists 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer 3 Pacific ENSO Application Center Personnel 5 Management Staff (4 Meteorologists) 20 Meteorologists 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians 1 Meteorologist Intern 3 Electronics Technicians 2 Contract Information Technologists 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer 3 Pacific ENSO Application Center Personnel

4. Local Forecast Office Programs Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts Public - Day to day Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts Public - Day to day Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail

5. Regional Forecast Programs Central Pacific Hurricane Center –Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator –UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific Marine –High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific) Aviation –Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Center Central Pacific Hurricane Center –Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator –UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific Marine –High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific) Aviation –Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Center

6. Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific Direct hits rare…but devastating –3 in last 50 years –Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992) 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific Direct hits rare…but devastating –3 in last 50 years –Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)

7. Terminology Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

8. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Season: June 1 to November 30 –Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month Central Pacific Average per Year –4-5 Tropical Cyclones 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones –36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms, 36% Tropical Depressions Season: June 1 to November 30 –Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month Central Pacific Average per Year –4-5 Tropical Cyclones 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones –36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms, 36% Tropical Depressions

10. Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

11. Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

12. Sea-Surface Temperature Climatology

14. Ocean Heat Content (OHC) Warm water (fuel) is often not just at the surface

15. Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

16. L L H H L L H H 5,000 ft/850 mb 40,000 ft/200 mb HeatHeat HeatHeat HeatHeat HeatHeat Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane Surface Effect of Vertical Wind Shear

17. Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

19. Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

20. Divergence = Exhaust

21. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island. Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

23. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Text Products Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Discussion Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Tropical Cyclone Local Statements Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Discussion Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Tropical Cyclone Local Statements

24. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 –4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 –4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

25. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. $$ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. $$

26. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

27. Tropical Cyclone Products Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times –5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued. Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times –5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.

28. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Discussion Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone Assess confidence or uncertainty Reason for change in track or intensity forecast Plans for watches and warnings Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone Assess confidence or uncertainty Reason for change in track or intensity forecast Plans for watches and warnings

29. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Discussion OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.

30. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Forecast /Advisory Short Term Section (days 1-3) –Current position and movement –Forecast center positions –Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots –34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5) –Forecast center positions –Maximum wind speed in knots Short Term Section (days 1-3) –Current position and movement –Forecast center positions –Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots –34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5) –Forecast center positions –Maximum wind speed in knots

31. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Forecast / Advisory HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB. EYE DIAMETER 10 NM. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW 34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB. EYE DIAMETER 10 NM. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW 34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

32. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Public Advisory Watches or warnings in effect –Highlights most significant conditions –Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS –Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone Intermediate Advisories –Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect an island Special advisories –Issued anytime significant changes occur –Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning –Classification of tropical cyclone changes –A tornado threat develops Watches or warnings in effect –Highlights most significant conditions –Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS –Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone Intermediate Advisories –Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect an island Special advisories –Issued anytime significant changes occur –Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning –Classification of tropical cyclone changes –A tornado threat develops

33. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Public Advisory AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

34. Hurricane Local Statements Specific details for county area Watches and/or warnings in effect Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and intensity Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood potential, tornado potential Civil Defense evacuation orders Precautions necessary to protect life and property Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if necessary Specific details for county area Watches and/or warnings in effect Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and intensity Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood potential, tornado potential Civil Defense evacuation orders Precautions necessary to protect life and property Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if necessary

35. Hurricane Local Statements HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007...AREAS AFFECTED......WATCHES WARNINGS.......STORM INFORMATION......PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS......HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS......WIND IMPACTS......FLOODING IMPACTS......NEXT UPDATE... HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007...AREAS AFFECTED......WATCHES WARNINGS.......STORM INFORMATION......PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS......HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS......WIND IMPACTS......FLOODING IMPACTS......NEXT UPDATE...

36. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 48* hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 36* hours Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 48* hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 36* hours * Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.

40. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Graphical companion to text product Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours –Low: Probability of genesis less than 30% –Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50% –High: Probability of genesis greater than 50% Graphical companion to text product Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours –Low: Probability of genesis less than 30% –Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50% –High: Probability of genesis greater than 50%

46. Emergency Plans Continuity of Operations Individuals/Families – 7 days Businesses Gather information about hazards Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans Continuity of Operations Individuals/Families – 7 days Businesses Gather information about hazards Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans

47. Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008 First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008 Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008 Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

48. Tropical Storm Kika 7 - 12 August 2008 Hawaii

49. Tropical Storm Kika 9 August 2008 0330 UTC

50. Tropical Storm Kika 7 August 2008 130pm

51. Tropical Storm Kika 8 August 2008 530pm

52. 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook 80% near to below normal season –3-5 Tropical Cyclones 20% chance of above normal season –6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook 80% near to below normal season –3-5 Tropical Cyclones 20% chance of above normal season –6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

53. Questions ? National Weather Service 2525 Correa Road Suite 250 Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 973-5270 raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov 973-5275 www.weather.gov/hawaii National Weather Service 2525 Correa Road Suite 250 Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 973-5270 raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov 973-5275 www.weather.gov/hawaii