1. Scotland’s Futures Forum Public Policy Seminar Series The Future for Lifelong Learning: Implications for Scotland Professor Tom Schuller

2. IFLL: emerging conclusions, and implications for Scotland Tom Schuller Director, IFLL Scotland’s Futures Forum Edinburgh, June 2009

3. IFLL Goals The overall goal is to offer an authoritative and coherent strategic framework for lifelong learning in the UK. This will involve: Articulating a broad rationale for public and private investment in lifelong learning Reappraising the social and cultural value attached to it Developing new perspectives on policy and practice.

4. IFLL Final Report IFLL Strategic Framework for Lifelong Learning Interim Papers Thematic Stocktake Sectoral Public Value  Prosperity Employment & Work  Demography and Social Structure  Wellbeing and Happiness  Migration and Communities  Technological Change  Poverty Reduction  Citizenship and Belonging  Crime and Social Exclusion  Sustainable Development  Public Sector Investment  Private Sector Investment  Third Sector Investment  Individual Commitment  Participation, over 10 years  Early childhood  Schools  Further Education  Higher Education  Local Authorities  Voluntary Sector  Family learning  Private Training Providers  Poverty  Health  Crime  Wellbeing  Equality Horizon Scanning / Scenario Planning Outline of Inquiry Papers

5. Key emerging lines 1.Rebalancing: a new model 2.A framework of entitlements 3.A citizens curriculum 4.Systemic governance 5.Local Learning Exchanges

6. Current or recent participation in learning by nation of the UK, 1996-2009 compared 1996 % 1999 % 2002 % 2005 % 2008 % 2009 % Total sample40 42 3839 England424142 39 Wales374339423841 Scotland383344363133 Northern Ireland283240374042 Weighted base4,7555,2055.8855,0534,9324,917 Base: all respondents

7. Productivity and employment in UK UK Employment: Employment populations ratio 2007, UK = 74.4% Productivity: GDP per hour worked (UK = 100), 2009 High employment/ high productivity High employment/ low productivity Low employment/ low productivity Low employment/ high productivity Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22

8. Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2009, by socio-economic class (NIACE 2009) ABC1C2DE Scotland50.6%40.8%32.6%20.9% UK52.8%48.2%33.3%24.4%

9. ‘Lifelong’ learning: the need for a new model - Demographics - Economic - Social

10. Youth transitions: linear (Furlong et al)

11. Youth transitions: non-linear (Furlong et al)

12. UK demographics are changing … = Working age

13. The Educational Lifecourse: a new and simple model ‘Four Quarters’: 0-25; 25-50; 50-75; 75+ The paradox of chronological age ‘Staging posts’: the need for markers in a fluid world Neuroscience, sociological, epidemiological No hard boundaries, but reduced arbitrariness l

14. Balanced by: -Solidarity and cohesion across and within generations -- Diachronic approach: the cumulation of (dis)advantage

15. Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2009, by age (NIACE 2009) 17-2425-4950-7475+ Scotland68.5%37.1%23.1%12.2% UK67.2%43.8%29.6%12.7%

16. Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2005, by age (NALS) 17-2425-4950-7475+ Scotland97.7%*87.1%58.2%28.4% England and Wales 86.5%83.4%66.8%33.6%*

17. Stocktake: Expenditure Based on IFLL Expenditure Research (work in progress – NOT FOR CITATION!) 17 – 2425 – 4950 – 7475+ Population – millions 7.2221.2915.864.66 Total of LL expenditure on provision - £ millions £46,8125,5791,254255 £ per capita per annum £6,484£262£79£55

18. ‘Citizens curriculum’: four capabilities 1. Financial 2. Health 3. Digital 4. Civic

19. Access to training at work in last 13 weeks by sector

20. Questions - Skills utilisation: what does it mean and how to promote it? - Entitlements: where and when would these have the biggest effect? - LL workforce: how to define and support?

21. “If you have an environment designed to accommodate the skills you have, it brings you back to life and supports health.” John Zeisel, National Institute on Aging and President of Hearthstone

22. Contacts/links www.lifelonglearninginquiry. org.uk www.lifelonglearninginquiry. org.ukTom.schuller@niace.org.uk

23. Productivity and employment in the UK ( source UKCES Ambition 2020) GVA per hour worked (UK = 100)% Employment rate (Jan 2007)% GVA per hour worked (UK = 100)% Employment rate (Jan 2007)% London129.770.1North East91.271.9 South East104.778.6West Midlands89.672.9 England101.874.5North West92.272.3 East of England 100.676.8Yorkshire and Humber 89.273.6 South West94.277.9Wales84.672.1 East Midlands 92.376.6Northern Ireland84.170.3 Scotland95.676.4

24. Expected changes in employment and productivity 2007-17 Employment growth GVA change % Source: UKCES, Working Futures 2007-17, January 2009 0.5%0%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0% UK Wales Scotland Northern Ireland England North East North West Yorkshire and Humber East Midlands West Midlands South West East of England South East London

25. UK People of Working Age Receiving Job-related Training in Last 13 Weeks by Sex & Highest Qualification Source: Education & Training Statistics 2008

26. Distribution of qualifications, 2008 (source UKCES Ambition 2020) None % Below Level 2 % Leve l 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 and above % None % Below Level 2 % Level 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 and above % Age Employment status 16-24111928 13 Full-time71720 36 25-49919201734 Part-time919252027 50-591817191729 Contract status 60-642213192125 Permanent718222034 Gender Non-permanent615192140 Male1218202228 Occupation Female1219221730 Managers and senior officials 413181946 Professional occupations046882 Administrative and secretarial 522282224 Skilled trades occupations 1118263510 Personal service occupations 618292313 Sales and customer service occupations 1123292313 Process plant and machine operatives 173227186 Elementary occupations213026167

27. International skills projections 2020, 25-64 year old population Below upper secondaryUpper SecondaryTertiary Country% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified RankCountry% QualifiedRank Czech Republic5.01Czech Republic77.21Canada60.21 Sweden5.01Slovak Republic75.42Japan59.92 Hungary5.01Hungary72.33Scotland53.8n/a Slovak Republic5.01Austria63.34Korea51.83 Korea5.01New Zealand61.95Denmark51.64 Norway5.01Sweden58.86USA48.05 Canada5.01Germany57.87Iceland46.76 Netherlands5.01Ireland55.08Norway45.87 Finland5.01Finland52.39Australia45.78 Austria6.110Netherlands51.610Northern Ireland 44.9n/a Japan6.311Italy49.711Spain44.29 Ireland7.712Norway49.212United Kingdom 43.510 New Zealand8.313Luxembourg48.313Netherlands43.411 USA9.914France46.614England42.8n/a Switzerland13.715Greece44.915Finland42.712 Denmark13.916Switzerland44.416Belgium42.213 Belgium14.317Belgium43.517Switzerland41.914

28. International skills projections 2020, 25-64 year old population Below upper secondaryUpper SecondaryTertiary Country% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified Rank Germany14.418Korea43.218Ireland37.315 Australia14.619USA42.219Wales37.3n/a Luxembourg15.820Wales41.6n/aSweden36.216 Scotland16.0n/aAustralia39.720Luxembourg35.917 Northern Ireland 19.8n/aEngland35.9n/aFrance32.718 France20.721UK35.721Austria30.519 Spain20.822Northern Ireland 35.3n/aPoland30.320 UK20.923Spain35.022New Zealand29.821 Wales21.1n/aCanada34.823Greece28.422 England21.3n/aDenmark34.424Germany27.723 Iceland22.223Japan33.825Hungary22.724 Greece26.725Iceland31.126Portugal21.225 Italy31.426Scotland30.2n/aMexico20.426 Poland50.527Turkey28.127Slovak Republic19.627 Turkey55.928Poland19.228Italy19.028 Portugal60.029Portugal18.829Czech Republic17.829 Mexico74.630Mexico5.030Turkey16.030

29. The distribution of training across the UK EnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Ireland UKEnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Ireland UK All2627 2026Qualification level AgeNo qualifications8131068 16-2430 332430NVQ Level 1201820 25-492728272127NVQ Level 222 1922 50-5923 251523NVQ Level 32527232025 60-64151810915NVQ Level 43438352734 GenderNVQ Level 53941403039 Male2322251723Occupation Female2831282328Managers and senior officials 242223 24 With Disability2423261324Professional occupations3843412739 No disability2527262025Associate professional and technical 3536372935 EthnicityAdministrative and secretarial 2123221922 White2526 1925Skilled trades occupations1617201317 Non-white2635 2127Personal service occupations 3739342637 Employment status Sales and customer service occupations 1925211820 Full-time2728 2027Process plant and machine operatives 1417131014 Part-time2224221722Elementary occupations Contract status Permanent2728 2127 Non-permanent2836293129

30. Qualification and skill matching across the nations of the UK, 2006 England % N. Ireland % Scotland % Wales % UK % Over-qualified39.932.439.9 39.0 Comprising real over-qualification16.712.517.319.416.8 formal over-qualification22.319.822.620.422.2 Over-skilled32.733.630.437.632.7 Under-qualified14.011.812.813.413.8 Qualification-matched Among which: Matched but over-skilled12.316.2 10.214.812.3 Source: Felstead, A. et al, Skills at Work, 1986-2006, 2007.

32. Scotland’s Futures Forum Public Policy Seminar Series The Future for Lifelong Learning: Implications for Scotland Professor Tom Schuller

33. Scottish Response Tony Coultas Skills Development Scotland 1 June 2009 Inquiry into the Future for Lifelong Learning: implications for Scotland

34. Scottish Response Learner experience Flexibility Innovation Systemic change