1. Identification of skills needs in Europe CEDEFOP – Thessaloniki – 22-23 May 2003 Linking quantitative and qualitative prospects for “low-skilled” jobs Géry Coomans Research Director of ISMEA (Institut des Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées – Paris)

7. Labour supply per educational level … Potential growth of employment per educational level EU15 – 2001-2010-2020 (% p.a.) Based on EU15 highest national employment rates per gender, 10- year age group and educational level as in 2001 (Nordic Star) 1999-2001

8. 1.2% 1.3%1.6% 0.5%

9. Potential annual growth of employment 2000-2020

10. EU15 average : +0,5 % New MSs average : +1.8 %

11. LOW … per age group EU15 average : -1.4% EU15 average : +0.7%

12. 1996-2001 One example

13. Conclusions Declining workforce – Ageing workforce Job mobility of low-skilled : high but due to decrease Behaviours leading to heavy local impact of demographic shift : stop-and-go recruiting low professionalisation Future trends : changing requirements, job assesment, competence recognition Global frame : lifelong develoment of competences as a macro-need, not the least for low-skilled Progressive internalisation within companies of LLL Multi-level bottlenecks (territorial/regional, SMEs, …)

14. Technical note : Data for the past extracted from Eurostat Labour Force Survey Demographic projections at national level : EU15 : Eurostat 2000 Demographic Projections (Baseline Scenario) Others : UN World Population prospects, 2000 Revision (Medium Variant) At regional level : Estimates from G. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply. All projections per educational level : Estimates from G. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply