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Balancing outcomes and making transparent trade offs Dr Liz Wedderburn AgResearch & Colleagues Rural Futures conference 24 th Sept 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Balancing outcomes and making transparent trade offs Dr Liz Wedderburn AgResearch & Colleagues Rural Futures conference 24 th Sept 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Balancing outcomes and making transparent trade offs Dr Liz Wedderburn AgResearch & Colleagues Rural Futures conference 24 th Sept 2009

2 What are we attempting to balance? Social Cultural Economic Environmental Quality of Life Source Choosing Regional Futures 2007

3 Today’s presentation Describe the system properties that underpin agriculture Discuss the knowledge sets required to achieve co- existence of outcomes Outline some tensions resulting from system properties Give examples of balancing outcomes at farm, catchment and community level

4 Coupling of Human Capability and Natural Capital is New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage

5 Ecosystem processes Biogeochemical hydrological Resources Economic activity Interface of high tension Sustainable Development from a natural capital base Functions for human well being: food, clean air, water, waste assimilation, biodiversity, cultural Leadership Governance Capacity

6 Knowledge Systems required to operate from a natural capital base The limits of ecosystem properties and behaviour: to set targets Ecosystem functions: –what are they? –how do we protect them? and –how does land management impact on them? The value of natural capital: how do we include in assessments? What are the skills, capability, institutions that couple human behaviour and ecosystem behaviour?

7 Tensions caused by system properties “wicked problems” Distance in space and time: –Impacts of decisions –Nutrient flow lag –Policy requirements; Research time lines Fast and slow cycles: fast societal change; slow biological response How can you manage what you cannot see? We do not have exact science knowledge No simple cause and effect instead we deal with dynamic coupled systems where relationships and systemic interactions defy ‘silver bullet’ solutions

8 Some attempts to balance the outcomes

9 Nutrient balance Optimum soil test values Nitrification inhibitors Low-rate effluent irrigation Wintering/spring pads Herd Homes Effluent storage Irrigation Bunds On Farm Technological Fixes Tool Box Source Monaghan 2005

10 Economic and environmental performance of a feedpad and a winter crop system for a dairy farm Source Monaghan et al 2005

11 AnimalsFert N $ GM per ha N leached kg N/ha/yr $ GM per kg N leached Steers0N5601056 Ewes 140% lambing 0N680975 Designing farm systems to balance nutrient emissions and financial returns Source Ledgard pers com

12 System Reconfiguring, Catchment Land use Pine on steep land Stock policy change Riparian protection Fragment restoration Spaced Poplar planting

13 IndicatorOld SystemBenchmark value New system Soil fertility (Olsen phosphate) 172523 Pasture production (t DM/ha/y) 9.512.110.0 Sediment export (t/ha/y) 2.860.440.69 Phosphorus export (kg/ha/y) 3.00.81.2 Indigenous plant diversity (# spp per plot) 203428 Lambing (% weaned) 109120124 Cattle gross margin ($/stock unit) 465882 Annual farm surplus ($/ha grazed) 181253285 Source Dodd et al 2007

14 Informed Consensus Transition cost too high Future institutions: Catchment Company Removal of property boundaries to design an extensive whole farm system To meet community goals

15 Sustainability of What, Why and for Whom ? A community conversation Social Cultural Economic Environmental Quality of Life Source Choosing Regional Futures 2007

16 Community Sustainability Outcomes EnvironmentEconomyQuality of LifeCulture/ Identity Participation and Equity ValuesAirProductivitySafety and security IdentityEquity Land and soil ProsperityHealthCultureCivic participation WaterEmploymentPaid workTreaty of Waitangi LandscapeInfrastructureRecreation & leisure Political/social trust BiodiversityTourismKnowledge and skills Human rights BiosecuritySocial connections International treaties Kaitiakitanga /stewardship Housing

17 OutcomesEnvironmentEconomicQuality of lifePolitics/ Culture StakeholdersGreen= Better Red=worseBlue=does not matter Yellow= moderate Scientists5030155 Dairy Industry 35401510 NGO50101525 Urban15255010 Evaluating impact of capping nutrient emissions

18 Outcomes Differing perspectives exposed Makes transparent the judgements and reasoning Identifies where co-existence and trade offs exist Enables collective learning Takes a systems approach to identifying unintended consequences Exposes who wins, who looses, who cares Mobilises science knowledge

19 Conclusions Multiple simultaneous approaches are required to balance outcomes Collective learning and building adaptive capacity within a systems context is essential Leadership is necessary to have an informed conversation at local-national scale about what we want to sustain Science informs

20

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