1. Passengers‘ Airport Choice Marc Ch. Gelhausen Aachen, 13. June 2007

2. Airport system in Germany – Airport choice 19 international airports (2 Hubs) 5 regional airports No. of airports serving a SPR: Minimum 3 airports Maximum 14 airports On average 8 airports 67 % choose nearest airport Some facts:

3. Average distribution: Private car driver 18 % Car passenger 34 % Rental car driver 4 % Taxi passenger 19 % Bus passenger 9 % Regional transit passenger 11 % Train passenger 5 % Airport system in Germany – access mode choice Urban AreaShare of IC Trains (%) Distance to Frankfurt (kms) Hamburg83495 Bremen57445 Hannover68350 Berlin36545 Dortmund57225 Düsseldorf70220 Köln68180 Leipzig82385 Stuttgart50205 Nürnberg44225 München66390 Good Rail Access

4. Why model combined airport and access mode choice? Airport choice Access mode choice Access time, access cost,... ! Problem ! Too many alternatives for model estimation Combination of both choice dimensions

5. „Key Aspects“ Nested logit-model Airport and access mode choice model Abstraction from specific alternatives Generally applicable model

6. Forecasting philosophy Traveler: „Which alternative is the best for me?“ Evaluation of alternatives by means of utility Forecaster: „ Which alternative is most likely the best for him?“ Lack of observability, measurement errors, … Choice probabilities Summing up over homogenous populations Market segment specific market shares of all alternatives Access cost, access time, flight plan,...

7. Analyzing airport and access mode choice Airport and access mode choice Airport and access mode characteristics Point of view: air traveler Discrete choice models Utility functionDistribution of error term U = V(x) +  i.e. U(FRA/Car) = a*(Access time) + b*(Access cost) +... + 

8. Cluster groups and airport categories Limited number of different generic airport/access mode combinations 3 airport categories 7 access mode categories Cluster analysis according to flight services Group-specific correlation structure among alternatives „Airport categories as different product types“ Values in % Absolute values Hub, medium and low-cost airports

9. Model estimation and application Grouping of Alternatives Definition of Data Subsets and a Reduced Set of Alternatives Merging of Data Subsets into a new Estimation Data Set Estimation of Group-Specific Model Parameters Selection of Airports and Access Modes Assignment of Airports and Access Modes to Groups Model Application Model EstimationModel Application Specific Application Case

10. Estimation results

11. Passengers‘ preferences cents minutes Scale In general, business travelers are more time-sensitive (exception EUR H) Business travelers prefer a shorter access time more Private travelers, however, prefer a direct flight connection more Low-cost plays a major role in European air travel

12. Airport choice in the Cologne region – status quo Three main airports: CGN is the main airport for domestic air travel DUS is the main airport for European air travel FRA is the main airport for intercontinental air travel

13. Airport choice in the Cologne region – FRA without intercity highspeed access FRA decreases by about 5 points in intercontinental travel DUS increases by about 1 point and CGN about 2.5 points in intercontinental travel Small increase of car and K&R at FRA Only very small effects on domestic and European travel

14. Airport choice in the Cologne region – re-positioning of DUS in intercontinental air travel DUS is the main airport for European and intercontinental air travel now CGN is main airport for domestic air travel FRA decreases heavily by about 18 points

15. More applications Impact of Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport on airport choice in Eastern Germany and Eastern Europe Impact of Transrapid access to Munich Airport on airport and access mode choice in Germany Airport choice in the German/Dutch border region

16. Main conclusions Decision relevant attributes can be roughly divided into access mode and airport specific attributes Attributes interact in a complex way Strong tendency to choose the nearest airport, especially in the business segment However, some air travelers are willing to travel far to get a direct flight at a cheap price, especially private air passengers traveling to European or intercontinental destinations Low-cost flights play a major role in European air travel Size of the catchment area of an airport is not fixed; it depends both on the supply of direct flights and attractive access modes to the airport

17. Thank you very much... Contact: Marc Ch. Gelhausen DLR - German Aerospace Center Air Transport and Airport Research Linder Höhe 51147 Köln/Germany Marc.Gelhausen@dlr.de