1. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting1 Impacts of Ethanol Fuel on PM Concentrations in Northern California during a Winter Episode 1 Planning and Technical Support Division Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency 2 Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California at Davis Paul Livingstone 1, Ajith Kaduwela 1,2, Kemal Gürer 1, Paul Allen 1, and Luis Woodhouse 1

2. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting2 DISCLAIMER The content of this presentation does not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the California Air Resources Board, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

3. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting3 Outline Introduction Modeling Approach Results and Discussions –Emissions –Background concentrations –Changes of O 3 due to ethanol –Changes of Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) due to ethanol Summary

4. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting4 Introduction Ethanol in light-duty vehicle fuel may –reduce emissions of NO x, primary PM, CO 2, and primary air toxics –increase emissions of ethanol, its combustion products, CH 4, and the price of corn-based food products Impact of ethanol blends on ozone –Increased ozone exposure in LA (Jacobson, 2007, ES&T) Impact of ethanol blends on secondary PM?

5. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting5 Scope of this Study Chose San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California during the winter –Secondary PM high in SJV during the winter –Already have a reasonable base CMAQ simulation for the winter 2000 No future projections, but followed Jacobson (2007, ES&T) closely Assumed all light-duty vehicles in California could have used an ethanol blend (E85) in 2000 Assumed no change in primary particulate matter and secondary organic aerosol concentrations due to E85 use

6. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting6 The San Joaquin Valley One of the most productive agricultural regions in the world – Cadillac Dessert Major goods movement corridors Oil production in the southern Valley Air Quality: Second most polluted area in the US and second most studied area in the world Ozone pollution in the summer and PM pollution in the winter (but the annual PM standard is more restrictive)

7. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting7 Major field studies 1970: Project Lo-Jet (identified summertime low-level jet and Fresno eddy) 1972: Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACHEX, first TSP chemical composition and size distributions) 1979-1980: Inhalable Particulate Network (first long-term PM 2.5 and PM 15 mass and elemental measurements in Bay Area, Five Points) 1978: Central California Aerosol and Meteorological Study (seasonal TSP elemental composition, seasonal transport patterns) 1979-1982: Westside Operators (first TSP sulfate and nitrate compositions in western Kern County) 1984: Southern SJV ozone study (first major characterization of O 3 and meteorology in Kern County) 1986-1988: California Source Characterization Study (quantified chemical composition of source emissions) 1988-89: Valley Air Quality Study (first spatially diverse, chemical characterized, annual and 24-hour PM 2.5 and PM 10 seasonal) Summer 1990: San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/Atmospheric Utilities Signatures Predictions and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX, first central California regional study of O 3 and PM 2.5 ) – Also known as SARMAP (SJVAQS/AUSPEX Regional Modeling Adaptation Project) Winter 1995: CRPAQS Pilot Study (IMS95, first sub-regional winter study) December 1999 to February 2001: CRPAQS and CCOS (first year-long, regional-scale effort) December 1999 to present: Fresno Supersite (first multi-year experiment with advanced monitoring technology) Prof. John Watson, DRI

8. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting8 Seasonality of O 3 and PM 2.5 Fresno – 1 st Street

9. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting9 Measurements 162 Air Quality Stations 365 Meteorology Stations

10. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting10 Modeling Approach Used data from California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) –www.arb.ca.gov/ccaqswww.arb.ca.gov/ccaqs Episode: –December 25-30, 2000 –Spin-up: December 22-24, 2000 MM5 meteorology with FDDA (NWS data) CARB 2002 emissions inventory back-casted to 2000 (but not the inventory used in recent SIPs) CMAQ with SAPRC-99 chemistry and ‘ae4’ aerosol module

11. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting11 Emission Scaling Factors for Ethanol Blend

12. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting12 Surface Emissions

13. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting13 Background Concentrations

14. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting14 Ethanol Effects on O3

15. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting15 Surface SIA Components

16. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting16 Surface Fine PM

17. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting17 Ethanol Effects on SIA

18. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting18 Ethanol Effects on SIA

19. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting19 Summary CMAQ was applied to a CRPAQS winter episode, to simulate the impact of hypothesized use of an ethanol blend on SIA components We observed slight increases in O 3 concentrations The ethanol blend was found to reduce SIA in most area of the San Joaquin Valley in California during a winter episode. Ethanol blends is just one component of a larger control strategy. The conclusions can change in that context.

20. October 1-3, 20076 th Annual CMAS Meeting20 International Aerosol Modeling Algorithms (IAMA) Conference Bi-annual in-depth look at the inner-workings of aerosol models (complements the annual CMAS Meeting) Wednesday, December 5 th – Friday, December 7 th, 2007 (just before the AGU meeting in San Francisco) University of California at Davis Impressive list of U.S. and international invited speakers Information at http://airquality.ucdavis.edu/http://airquality.ucdavis.edu/